It could be argued that predicting interest rates is little more than a fool's game but that doesn't seem to stop the world's hardy band of economists guessing away regardless.

Looking out to 2002 - the year of the euro - the guesswork has the potential to be even more difficult than usual: the forecasters need to factor in the chances of a post-September 11th US recovery, prospects for the euro zone, market expectations and the mood swings of the European Central Bank (ECB), among other factors.

Even then, in the words of AIB chief economist Mr John Beggs, it's still hard to make anything but a "50/50 call". All things considered, it's not hard to see how mortgage-holders get confused with the whole business.

Mr Beggs is predicting that the current euro-zone repo rate of 3.25 per cent will probably fall by another half a percentage point in the first quarter of next year, possibly in February.

This will, he believes, be the bottom of the current cycle, even though rates probably won't rise again until the start of 2003.

"The markets are looking to this being close to the end," he says.

Mr Jim Power, head of investment strategy at Friends First, is also expecting to see a half a percentage point cut but says that it could occur slightly later.

"There's still quite a lot of doubt about prospects for the European economy - there's still a complete lack of inflationary pressure. My view is that we'll see another half per cent off rates in the first four months of 2002. If I'm wrong, we'll see a quarter," says Mr Power, who is predicting a turn in the rate cut pattern before the end of 2002.

Exhibiting more bullish characteristics is Mr Austin Hughes, chief economist at Irish Intercontinental Bank. Mr Hughes says that interest rates will probably fall in the early part of the year, but only by a quarter of a percentage point as the prospect of an upturn becomes more realistic.

"Any drop will be reasonably limited because there are tentative signs of recovery," he says. "I don't believe that we're going to see dramatic falls."

Mr Hughes expects that rates will be up by between a half and three quarters of a percentage point by the end of 2002.

Dr Dan McLaughlin, Bank of Ireland chief economist, is also on the more optimistic side, envisaging a 3.75 per cent rate to apply by the end of 2002. This could happen, he says, even if the ECB cuts rates at the beginning of the year.

Optimism is not the prevailing mood, however. Bringing the interest rate issue back down to earth is Mr Robbie Kelleher, chief economist at Davy Stockbrokers.

Mr Kelleher, the biggest bear of the bunch, is forecasting the bulk of a one percentage point cut to be imposed in the first two quarters of 2002, with later cuts possible too.

The plot thickens. What does all this prophesying mean for the beleaguered mortgage-holder? Will 2002 be the time to fix or not to fix? Does anyone have an answer?

First things first: the question, the surveyed economists agree, is probably better expressed as "how risk-averse are you?" All point out that most fixed-rate products currently on the market have already priced in some kind of recovery, largely because the cost to banks of long-term borrowing has been increasing within the past couple of months.

Equally, they say, interest rates are likely to remain low for the next couple of years, making variable rates seem relatively attractive. The choice between the two depends on an individual's personal attitude to taking a risk.

"The cost to a bank of borrowing fixed-rate cash in the money markets has gone up by 0.5 per cent in the last month," says Dr McLaughlin, who argues that the window where a fixed mortgage is worth considering in financial terms has almost passed.

Mr Power agrees, suggesting that now is not the time to dally on the fixing front.

"Long-term interest rates, such as five-year bond yields, have already discounted the move in short-term rates and in fact they have started to edge up," according to Mr Power.

"If I didn't lock in, I wouldn't worry too much, but if one is risk-averse, now is the time."

Mr Hughes also argues that it may be too late to catch the cycle on its way up again. "If you are getting a mortgage, you'll need to budget for a harsher interest-rate environment," he says.

Mr Beggs says that "on balance, there is value to be got in fixed rates", but acknowledges that nothing is certain.

"For people who feel comfortable being fixed, it's good value [at the moment], but sticking with the variable probably won't do any harm either, not in 2002, he says.

Mr Kelleher, meanwhile, is the most definite of them all.

"I wouldn't fix," he says.