The ESB has warned in the latest edition of its internal newspaper, Electric Mail, that the winter of 2000/2001 could be one of discontent, with the electricity safety reserve of 600 megawatts (MW) in danger of being squeezed as the planning permission process holds up power stations in the pipeline.

"Accepting that it takes two years to complete the construction of a new combined cycle gas plant, time is running out," the article warns. Rising power demands due to the booming economy have put a strain on the State's existing generating capacity which has been partly offset by the electricity interconnector with the North. Although the interconnectors' capacity will be increased from 280MW to 400MW, the ESB believes buying electricity from another jurisdiction is not a secure way to maintain supply.

Peak demand for electricity in the Republic is growing by about 5 per cent annually, although Electric Mail points out that demand will grow by 6.5 per cent this year to 3,750MW.

The ESB generational capacity when the final phase of Poolbeg comes on stream this year will be 4,500MW but a 600MW operating reserve is maintained as a safety margin. Although the 28 per cent of the market will be opened to competition in February, projects such as the ESB/Statoil joint venture for Ringsend, the Viridian/CRH project at Huntstown and the Scottish Power/Arco for west Dublin have to receive planning permission and gas supply constraints for combined cycle gas plants must be resolved.

With demand in 2001/2002 expected to peak at 4,200MW, an operating reserve of 600MW means that the Republic should have a 4,800MW capacity, 300MW less than is currently available and 183MW less than the projected generational capacity of the State when a 117MW peat station in Edenderry becomes operational.