As listeners tune out of the RTÉ station, some ask if Tubridy has the power to pull them back, writes SIOBHAN O'CONNELL
AFTER THE untimely death of Gerry Ryan in May, 2fm boss John McMahon is pinning his hopes on Ryan Tubridy to halt the haemorrhage of listeners at RTÉ’s music station.
In the autumn, Tubridy is moving from RTÉ Radio 1 to its sister station with a mid-morning show. Airing from 9am to 11am, Tubridy’s programme will be one hour shorter than Gerry Ryan’s show. RTÉ is seeking a big brand to pay €500,000 to sponsor the show. If the target is achieved, it would make it the most expensive radio sponsorship in the market.
Few broadcasters can match Tubridy’s pulling power. In the latest Joint National Listenership Research (JNLR) survey, for the period July 2009 to June 2010, he had an average quarter-hour adult audience (AQH) of 300,000 listeners for his one-hour weekday show on RTÉ Radio 1. The corresponding audience figure for the three-hour Gerry Ryan slot on 2fm was 172,000, a drop of 7 per cent year on year.
Gerry Ryan’s audience had been declining for the past two years, and that’s the story across the station. According to Paul Moran of ad agency Mediaworks: “All 2fm’s flagship programmes lost listeners in the latest JNLR and its all-adults market share figure nationally and in Dublin fell for the fourth year in a row.
“The AQH adult audience figure fell to 90,000 from 106,000 year-on-year and 2fm is now in third position behind Today FM in terms of stations with the largest adult audience.”
Dave Harland, chief executive of OMD said: “The fall in 2fm listenership is the big story. The question for 2fm is how does RTÉ start to grow talent and where does it go from here? The figures and the challenge speak for themselves.”
Gerry Ryan was by far 2fm’s most popular presenter, attracting twice as many listeners as any other broadcaster on the station. However, Ruth Payne, media director in ad agency Javelin, believes that it won’t be straightforward for Tubridy to fill Gerry Ryan’s shoes.
She said: “Gerry Ryan had a very loyal audience and it will be difficult for Ryan Tubridy to replicate that success. This would have been the perfect opportunity for 2fm bosses to completely revamp the station. They have missed an opportunity.”
2fm’s John McMahon had a different perspective on the audience research to some of the ad agency analysts. He declared: “2fm has maintained its weekday and seven-day reach lead on its commercial competitors, with gains at the weekends for Tommy Hector, Ruth Scott and Celebrity Sunday seeing 2fm maintain over one million listeners across the week.”
Ruth Ní Fhloinn at ad agency MediaEdge CIA argues that the fairest way to compare listenership reports is year on year. “Tommy Hector’s audience increase comes from comparing the mid-book (April 2009-March 2010) to the current book for July 2009-June 2010. Looking at its year-on-year figures, all the programmes lost listeners, including Tommy Hector. This has been the trend for 2fm for the last number of years. Our opinion is that the station is currently in freefall and that 2fm needs to turn things around pretty quickly.”
On Radio 1, Tubridy had the advantage of following Morning Ireland, the most popular radio show in the country. Over on 2fm, its Colm Jim Jim Breakfast Show appears to be running out of steam. The show’s adult AQH figure in the new JNLR was 46,000, a decline of 20 per cent year on year.
Said Ní Fhloinn: “With Ian Dempsey on Today FM reporting disappointing numbers in this latest JNLR, 2fm had an opportunity to attract listeners to this time slot. On current form, it would seem that Colm Jim Jim are not up to this challenge. Perhaps Tommy Hector could change the fortunes of the 2fm breakfast show.”
2fm’s woes can’t be viewed in isolation. Today FM’s market share in its core market of 15-34 year olds has also declined for the third year in a row. Both stations have suffered due to the growing popularity of Newstalk and the ongoing strength of local stations.
With Colm McCarthy now looking into the possibility of privatising semi-State companies, his gaze may pass over 2fm. Despite the declining audience, the station would probably attract suitors. It has a strong brand, some household name presenters and a valuable frequency. Its AQH national adult audience is still level pegging Today FM and in 2008 the station threw up a surplus of €3.5 million on revenues of €20 million.
The last big radio sale was in December 2007 when UTV paid Denis O’Brien €52 million for Dublin station FM104. The deal valued FM104 at almost 15 times earnings. On that basis, 2fm could also fetch around €50 million if it were sold. Any such proposal from McCarthy would be fiercely resisted in Montrose. Moving Tubridy sideways is a declaration of intent from RTÉ that it intends to revitalise its flagging second station. However, the view from adland is that other pieces of 2fm’s schedule jigsaw need to be rearranged quickly too.
siobhan@businessplus.ie
