EXCHEQUER figures due out later today are likely to show the Government is on target to significantly undershoot its budget borrowing target.
Most market analysts are predicting there may be an Exchequer surplus and the Government's finances could actually be back in the black today.
In the past, Exchequer borrowing has proved very difficult to forecast as last minute movements of tax and EU funds can substantially affect the figures.
Nevertheless, most commentators are expecting tax receipts in the last quarter to be more than the amount spent by Government. This would give the Minister for Finance, Mr Quinn, considerable leeway for a tax cutting Budget early next year.
The September Exchequer returns are expected to show a surplus of anything between zero and £175 million when they are published later this afternoon. However, Mr Dermot O'Brien, chief economist at NCB, forecasts a deficit of up to £250 million.
The authorities will also reveal how much foreign debt they have paid off so far this year.
The figures are expected to show that up to an extra £500 million could be in the kitty for Mr Quinn at the Budget. This money could be used for tax cuts, spending or a cut in borrowing.
The Exchequer Borrowing Requirement (EBR), or the difference between the expenditure by Government Departments and tax revenue, in the first half of the year was £455 million, compared to £561 million at the end of March. The official target set at the time of the Budget is £729 million. The Department of Finance has already indicated the figures are too high and are likely to be undershot.
As well as taxpayers, the bond markets will be taking a keen interest in the data. So far this year, the National Treasury Management Agency has taken advantage of the buoyant market and has raised up to £2.4 billion gross through issuing Government debt.
Much of that money, up to £700 million at the last count, has been used to pay off foreign debt. This is far more than usual. Last year, £600 million was paid off, more than the year before. Some has also been used to refinance Government debt.
However the authorities can not simply pay off the total foreign debt. Only about £1 billion was scheduled to be paid off this year. Much of the rest is fixed and early redemption would incur hefty financial penalties.
