The Central Bank is the latest in a line of official forecasting bodies which have criticised the Government's budgetary policy and warned of the dangers of a "hard landing" from the current rapid level of economic growth.
Institutions such as the IMF and the OECD have long argued that fiscal - or tax and spending - policy is too loose and that this greatly increases the chances of a severe downturn.
Only last week, the Economic and Social Research Institute, in its latest quarterly bulletin, warned that unexpected world events could produce a sudden deflation of domestic activity. "The Budget, by raising the level of economic activity and of prices even higher, could make a future hard landing, harder still," it said.
The Central Bank is beating the same drum. There are pressures, it says, which could undermine the prospects for continuing stable growth.
The Bank mentions housing, where prices have reached unduly high levels, and straining infra structure but does not dwell on the topic. Rather it is the boost to domestic demand and consumption which the £1.1 billion Budget tax give-away will engineer that it concentrates on.
"The Budget has provided an expansionary stimulus at an inappropriate time. Decisions taken in relation to public spending and taxation tend to become permanent commitments that cannot easily be reversed."
It particularly points to pay pressures from teachers, nurses and Garda which would permanently raise the cost base and make responding to an external shock more difficult.
And there are clouds on the horizon. A possible US stockmarket downturn would have a severe impact on the economy here, according to Bank director Mr Tom O'Connell. He points to the likely affect on direct foreign investment and hence employment which such a downturn could engender.
The Bank does not believe the theory that inflation is being held in check by the much-vaunted new economic paradigm, where productivity increases mean that higher pay levels can be afforded. The Bank points to inflation in the services sector, which is running at over 5 per cent and is to rise to 5.5 per cent or more.
The bank says that the theory that higher wage increases will reduce competitiveness and exports and hence the demand for labour - and thus slow the economy - is probably correct. But it points out this is unlikely to be a smooth process.
Wage developments are slow. And the teachers, nurses and Garda who are seeking the largest rises are not subject to competition.
The key point the bank makes is that all these developments leave the Republic vulnerable if there is an economic "shock" which sharply knocks back growth rates. The hope in Government circles is that a continued benign economic climate will allow the boom to go on and on.
