When people talk about the Republic's economic "miracle" in reverent tones and ponder its future by looking for signals of continued growth or demise, they forget that there is nothing miraculous or inexplicable about our economic performance.
It won't surprise many when I point out that our success has been built on the foundations set by our investment in engineering and technology graduates throughout the 1980s and 1990s. It will not surprise, again, when I warn that our boom is threatened by a shortage of engineering graduates coming through our education system.
The 50,000-plus engineers working in the Republic are vital elements of the construction, electronics, software, biotechnology, pharmaceutical and telecommunications sectors, and are the reason, along with a competitive tax regime, that we have seen the unprecedented levels of inward investment throughout the 1990s.
This did not happen by chance. In the 1980s, more than 15 per cent of all graduates were from an engineering background, providing a rich skills pool that IDA Ireland successfully marketed and into which foreign multinationals were only too happy to tap.
Today, barely 10 per cent of all graduates are engineers.
Through the 1990s, the demand for new engineering graduates grew by 14 per cent, while the supply of such graduates trailed behind at 4 per cent. Also of concern is the fact that, last year, there was a fall-off of more than 10 per cent in first-preference applications for diploma and certificate courses in engineering at third level.
This pattern represents a drying-up of the flow of engineering graduates that allowed the Republic to move from an agriculturally-driven society to one focused on high technology in little more than a decade.
Looking ahead, the next step for the Irish economy will be driven in large part by the £40 billion (€51 billion) or more to be invested through the National Development Plan on human and physical capital. Our ability to deliver this plan will be severely curtailed if the number of engineers and technically qualified graduates continues to fall behind demand.
In civil engineering terms, the challenges are huge. Over the next six years in Dublin we are faced with the completion of the Luas project, the beginning of the Metro system, extensions to the DART, the Dublin Port Tunnel and the completion of the C-Ring Motorway. The total value of this investment programme runs to more than £6 billion.
The investment is overdue and welcome, but one huge question still hangs over this programme - who is going to physically design, build and deliver these projects?
As it stands, we produce the same number of civil engineers today as we did 10 years ago.
We must remember that civil engineering is just one discipline in the engineering "family" that is in great demand - and on which our industrial and infrastructural development depends. There is also pressure to find the next generation of electronics, software, bio-medical, chemical and food engineers, and many others that have facilitated the move up the value chain of Irish industry.
We have been so successful in these areas that we can now consider ourselves leaders in electronics and software production, and to have excelled in the pharmaceutical, bio-medical and other sectors. The challenge is to continue to innovate, retrain and upskill.
We must learn from the successful policies pursued in the 1980s and 1990s and continue to produce quality engineering graduates and technicians, to enable us retain and grow existing high-value industry and attract the next generation of potential inward investment.
Interim problems, either in industrial sectors or in the world economy, should not divert us from implementing essential strategies in relation to the State's skills requirements and education system.
The Institution of Engineers of Ireland has highlighted the downward trend in participation rates and pass rates in mathematics and physical sciences at Leaving Certificate level as a critical issue. This year, the number taking higher level maths was down 6.6 per cent, while 10.4 per cent failed higher level physics - 2.7 percentage points more than last year. Those achieving higher grades in chemistry fell by 10.2 per cent.
Not every pupil has access to these subjects. Thirty per cent of schools do not offer chemistry, while one-quarter do not offer physics.
These are the subjects on which engineering and scientific skills are dependent, but they are not receiving sufficient attention at policy and strategy level and are attracting fewer students each year, partly because fewer graduates in these disciplines are entering the system as teachers.
It is now essential that the Task Force for the Physical Sciences, established by the Minister for Education and Science, Mr Martin, reports quickly and that its recommendations are acted on urgently. These recommendations should complement work being done by the Institution of Engineers to encourage greater participation in these subjects through its "STEPS" (science, technology and engineering programme for schools) project, which aims to promote engineering career opportunities.
If we want to sustain our position as a leading-edge, technology-driven economy, we need engineering graduates such as those who created the modern economy we enjoy today - and who will construct the society of tomorrow.
Mr Paddy Purcell is the director general of the Institution of Engineers of Ireland
