Fourteen of the EU's 15 member states are today expected to get the green light for participation in the single currency, when the EU Commission's autumn economic forecasts are published. However, despite meeting the bulk of the criteria, Britain, Sweden and Denmark are opting out and Greece is not eligible. It now looks increasingly likely that 11 countries will sign up on day one.
The forecasts are likely to be the last projections published by the Commission before next May Day's meeting of EU leaders to decide on who will participate. The decision will be based on actual out-turn figures for 1997 published in March.
However, there is likely to be one huge imponderable. The Commission projections are reported to put Italy's deficit at 3 per cent but are based on the assumption that the currently blocked budget is passed. The fall of the Prodi Government has left that deeply uncertain.
In recent months opposition to Italy's participation, based on fears that its success in reducing its deficit for 1997 might not be sustained in 1998, has gradually faded. And signals appear to have come from Bonn that Germany, ostensibly the most nervous of all about the effect of Italian participation on domestic German opinion, is willing to acknowledge the momentous efforts made by Italy to meet the targets.
A prolonged period of political instability is likely to reopen old doubts.
Meanwhile, the British Chancellor, Mr Gordon Brown, again yesterday refused to be drawn on Britain's involvement in the single currency, beyond insisting that "it is very unlikely that we would join in the first wave". Mr Brown was speaking at the meeting of EU Finance Ministers. British sources expect a formal decision to this effect next month with German and French pressure building up on the British to go further by giving an indication they may join before the introduction of notes and coins in 2002.
The Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, welcomed the more positive signals coming from Britain in recent days about its possible participation. "If Britain is sending more positive signals that will take away the doubts of even the most sceptical of Irish commentators," he said.
Ministers yesterday were urged to step up their detailed preparations for the launch of the euro by the Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Mr Yves Thibault de Silguy. Mr de Silguy also gave notice that decisions would soon have to be taken on the actual date of introduction of notes and coins and on the period during which dual pricing in shops would be required.
