A lot was made last year of the supposed good performance of the Irish market - well up on the year (at least in index terms) compared to other more prestigious markets.
What people tend to forget is that nearly three-quarters of the rise in the Irish market was down to the excellent performance by Elan, which now accounts for almost one-fifth of the value of the market. Elan is currently trading around $47 (€50.51) on the NYSE, but Goldman Sachs has slapped a $70 target price on the shares - a prediction that, if fulfilled, should have the Irish market once again top of the performance league.
The problem for Irish investors is actually getting hold of the shares. With a unit price of $47, Elan tends to trade in large-value blocks of shares and punters looking to buy $1,000 worth are likely to be disappointed.
Goldman bases its bullish forecasts for Elan on a variety of factors - not least expected strong fourth-quarter earnings, due for release at the end of the months. Goldman believes that the Ziconitide pain drug will be approved by the FDA in the current quarter, and that Elan's Frovatriptan migraine drug will be approved by the end of the quarter, with further but less advanced developments in a host of other drugs, as well as some senior management appointments
More and more must Irish fund managers be regretting the way they treated Don Panoz and Donal Geaney when they were touting Elan around Ireland's investment houses 10 years ago. Then the Elan men were lucky to even get a hearing - let alone investment from the Irish funds.