Martin Wolf: Rebuffing China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is folly

Good news that China wishes to invest a small part of its $3.8 trillion in foreign reserves

Interim chief  of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Jin Liqun speaking during the China Development Forum 2015  in Beijing. Photograph: EPA
Interim chief of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Jin Liqun speaking during the China Development Forum 2015 in Beijing. Photograph: EPA

Britain has irritated the US by opting to become a founding member of an institution that some view as a part of China’s answer to the World Bank. But this does not mean the decision is a bad one. On the contrary, it is sensible – although not without risk.

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will finance infrastructure in Asian developing countries. It is to have initial capital of $50 billion, which may be increased to $100 billion. While China is to be the biggest shareholder, many other Asian countries are joining. (Non-Asian members are restricted to 25 per cent of the shares). Other European countries, including Germany and Italy, have decided to apply; Australia, Japan and South Korea are still in two minds.

The new institution is potentially valuable. Developing countries in Asia as elsewhere are in desperate need of investment in infrastructure. Private funding of risky and long-term projects is often either expensive or non-existent. The resources of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank are grossly deficient, relative to the needs.

Thus, the fact that China wishes to invest a small part of its $3.8 trillion in foreign exchange reserves in the AIIB is good news. That it wishes to do so via multilateral institutions, in which its voice, however loud, will be one among many, is still better. A multilateral institution would have a global staff, which should make it less politicised than if China provided the money on its own.

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For all these reasons, the US should also join . The White House might reply that, however much it would like to do so, it has no chance of getting approval from the current Congress. That may be true. But it is not an argument against participation by other countries.

Still, the US does have an argument, although it is a baffling one. Western countries, it says, can have more influence over the institution by staying outside. That, argues one US official, would be better than “getting on the inside at a time when they can have no confidence that China will not retain veto powers”. Yet outsiders will have no influence over an institution that does not need their money. The only hope of influence is from inside. True, it would have been better if the Europeans had agreed on conditions for entry. But it is too late for that.

Asian standards

Jack Lew, US treasury secretary, has voiced American concerns the Asian bank would not live up to the “highest global standards” for governance or lending.

As a former staff member of the World Bank, I must smile. Lew might like to study the bank’s role in funding Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire, one horrifying example among many. It would be good if the new institution were as white as snow. But this is a fallen world. At the least, it would be better with a broad membership than without it.

Nor can the US argue with any credibility against competition to the existing institutions. Yes, there is a risk of a race to the bottom on standards. But there is also a possibility that needless red tape would be eliminated. The real American concern is that China might establish institutions that weaken its influence on the global economy. To this I offer four replies.

First, the US, Europeans and Japanese treasure a degree of influence on global financial institutions that is increasingly out of line with their position in the world. Moreover, they have failed to exercise that stewardship as well as they ought to have done. Not least, they have insisted on the right to appoint leaders who have been far from consistently excellent.

Second, it is five years since the Group of 20 leading countries agreed on new quotas that would moderate their outsized influence at the International Monetary Fund. The world is still waiting for the US Congress to ratify the changes.This is an abdication of responsibility.

Third, the world economy would benefit from larger flows of long-term capital to developing countries. It would also benefit from a bigger insurance fund than the IMF can offer to countries exposed to “sudden stops” in capital flows. Foreign exchange reserves have risen to close to $12 trillion, from less than $2 trillion at the turn of the millennium, dwarfing the IMF’s resources of less than $1 trillion. This indicates the scale of the shortfall. China’s money could push the world in the right direction. That would be an excellent thing.

Accommodation vs conflict

Finally, the US criticises the UK for its “constant accommodation” of the rising superpower. But the alternative to accommodation is conflict. China’s economic rise is beneficial and inevitable. What is needed therefore is intelligent accommodation.

Where China offers proposals that make sense for itself and for the world, engagement is more sensible than carping from the sidelines. An erstwhile US policymaker once asked China to be a “responsible stakeholder”. With the creation of the AIIB, it is doing just that.

Thus, the approach of the UK and other European allies is to be applauded. Moreover, the UK’s decision to join the AIIB could even be a salutary shock to the US. Yes, it would be desirable if countries with similar interests and values, such as Britain and the US, could speak and act as one.

And yes, the UK is taking risks in adopting a line different from that of its most important international partner. But support must not be slavish. That has proved to be in nobody’s interests.

Moreover, if Britain’s choice makes clear to US policymakers that leadership is not a right but has to be earned, the decision could well prove beneficial. In the years after the second World War, in a fit of presence of mind, the US created the institutions of the modern world. But the world has moved on.

It needs new institutions. It must adjust to the rise of new powers. It will not stop, just because the US can no longer engage. If the results are not to America’s liking, it has only itself to blame. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2015