GOVERNMENT expects tax revenues would increase to €33.1 billion in 2011 from €31.5 billion this year if no changes in taxes were introduced, according to figures in the pre-Budget White Paper.

Despite the improvement in revenues the exchequer deficit would grow to €22.4 billion from €18.7 billion. However, the White Paper does not take account of the measures outlined in the Government’s four-year plan, published last month, which outlines savings and tax-raising measures of €15 billion between now and 2013.

Government expenditure this year will come in at €54.7 billion, which consists of €47.3 billion in current spending and €7.4 billion in capital outlay. The projection for 2011 is total spending of €59.1 billion; €49 billion on the current side and €10.1 billion on capital.

The White Paper shows spending on the Health Service Executive would fall from €10.7 billion to €10.6 billion. Expenditure at the Department of Social Protection is to increase from €13.2 billion to €14.2 billion, while the budget for the Department of Education and Skills would increase from €7.9 billion to €8.3 billion.

Payments of €3.1 billion on promissory notes, related to the recapitalisation of Irish banks, are also included in the accounts for 2011. The White Paper notes that the State will receive €139 million from the European Regional Development Fund in 2011 compared to €60 million this year.

A €32 million allotment for “election expenses” is included in 2011, when a general election is expected to be called, compared to just €2 million this year.

The White Paper is a constitutional document that must be prepared in advance of the Budget. Although traditionally it has been closely watched as an indicator of what might be in the Budget, this year it has been superseded by the publication of the Government’s four-year plan and the Memorandum of Understanding with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union.