Over the last 50 years, the North’s economy has performed poorly, not only relative to the Republic but also compared to the rest of the United Kingdom.
While the Troubles had a big impact in the 1970s and 1980s, the 25 years since the Belfast Agreement have not been marked by a recovery in its position within the UK, despite Stormont having control over important aspects of its economy.
Northern Ireland could do much better if it had a long-term strategy designed to raise productivity and living standards. Some of the vital elements of such a strategy were considered at an Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI) “shared island” conference earlier this week.
When compared to the rest of the UK. the North spends more per head on education and health, but gets poorer outcomes. The priority should be to raise the delivery of key public services to the standard of the rest of the United Kingdom. This means managing the North’s existing resources at least as well as the rest of the UK.
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Unlike the rest of the United Kingdom, which abandoned such selection decades ago, today in the North 40 per cent of children are selected at age 11 to go to grammar school, with the remaining 60 per cent facing poorer prospects and life chances. This results in a much higher level of early school leaving than elsewhere in the UK or the Republic, with serious long-term social and economic consequences.
An effective way to tackle underperforming education would be to eliminate selection at age 11, integrate Protestant and Catholic schools, and provide a unitary post-primary system. Instead of having four second-level schools, Catholic and Protestant, grammar and secondary, in a town, a single school could provide a much better range of educational opportunities at a lower cost. John Turner of Queen’s University advocated this reform at the ESRI conference.
It wouldn’t be easy. Apart from the opposition of interest groups, implementing such a big change would take time, as the new integrated schools would need larger buildings with enhanced facilities. But here in the Republic, in many of our towns, we have successfully integrated separate boys’ and girls’ secondary schools and the local vocational school.
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The North also needs to expand the number of third-level places. Today, many northern students pursue their university education in Britain, never to return. More college places in the North would lead to a long-term increase in the share of graduates in the workforce, and raise labour productivity and prosperity in the coming decades.
While spending per head on health is higher in the North than elsewhere in the UK, it delivers poorer services, with much longer waiting lists. One factor is the absence of consolidation of hospital services into a smaller number of centres of excellence. Here in the Republic, former minister for health Mary Harney’s consolidation of cancer services into eight centres of excellence improved outcomes by concentrating expertise, particularly in rarer conditions. As in education, any programme of consolidation would require additional capital investment to deliver expanded facilities.
The North also suffers from significant infrastructural deficits, especially in water and transport. These hamper economic, social, and environmental development. Northern Ireland’s investment per head in transport is only two-thirds of that in the rest of the United Kingdom.
While the long-term running costs of consolidated health or education services should be no higher than at present, there would be significant upfront investment needed to achieve the mergers that would yield better results. Additional investment is also needed in Northern Ireland’s transport and water infrastructure.
In the short run, painful cuts may be needed elsewhere to find the funds to reallocate to investment. Stormont will find it difficult to take tough decisions that will yield long-term benefits and to sell this to the community.
One potential source of revenue for additional investment could be to raise the North’s property tax rates to match those in England. Such a tax increase would fall more heavily on those who are better off, so would be progressive.
If the North implemented the necessary far-reaching reforms, over the next 25 years, it would greatly enhance living standards and social conditions for all.
For those who hanker after a United Ireland, their first port of call should be to make this happen, narrowing the current big gap with the Republic and Britain. While the benefits would take years to mature, it would eventually greatly reduce the potential cost to the Republic of unification. For unionists, narrowing the gap with the rest of the UK would be also be a big plus. A win-win.
