ECB ready to cut rates for first time, say economists

Sluggish growth in Europe's major economies and subdued price pressures across the euro zone will lead the European Central Bank…

Sluggish growth in Europe's major economies and subdued price pressures across the euro zone will lead the European Central Bank (ECB) to make its first interest rate cut tomorrow, according to a narrow majority of economists in a Reuters poll.

The survey, conducted yesterday, showed that 13 out of 25 economists expected the ECB to trim its benchmark refinancing rate for the first time since it began operating on January 1st.

Yesterday's poll is the first this year to suggest a good chance of an imminent cut in European rates. ECB watchers said there was plenty of room for borrowing costs to be relaxed, with the euro zone's three biggest economies - Germany, France and Italy - all turning in sub-par performances.

"The economy is slowing and inflation is effectively zero," said Mr Julian Callow, economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in London. "A cut will send a signal that the ECB cares about the economic situation and developments in euro land."

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Analysts said the argument for lower borrowing costs in the euro zone boiled down to two factors: low inflation and low growth. Those expecting a cut said the benchmark refinancing rate would be trimmed by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent.

The ECB's 17-member governing council will meet all day tomorrow and is likely to announce its decision on rates ahead of a scheduled news conference.

European rates were last cut in December, when the not-yet-operational ECB helped engineer a co-ordinated cut by national central banks, which brought rates to their current 3 per cent level.

But since the euro's arrival at the beginning of this year, the ECB has resisted political pressure to lower rates.

Analysts are also expecting a rate cut in the UK on Thursday, where the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its decision at 1100 GMT.

City economists widely expect the MPC to lower its main short-term rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent.