Broadcast of the TV series Rip- off Republic may have contributed to a slide in consumer confidence in August, which was caused principally by rising oil prices. This is according to the latest findings of a survey conducted jointly by the ESRI and Irish Intercontinental Bank (IIB), which monitors consumer sentiment on a monthly basis.
The value of the monthly index fell from 96.5 in July to 91.0 in August to reach its lowest level since June 2004. IIB chief economist Austin Hughes cited rising energy costs as the main cause of the fall. "Clearly a sharp rise in energy costs in early August darkened the outlook for household spending power. So, too, might speculation about an eventual rise in borrowing costs," said Mr Hughes.
He suggested that a divergence was emerging between generally upbeat tone of comment on the economy on the one hand and perceptions of consumers on the other.
Recent media focus on consumer issues may have played a role in this, he added.
"In particular, there has been a feeling that strong 'macro' conditions have not translated into a meaningful improvement in the living standards of the average consumer ... it might be argued that the very high profile of the first couple of Rip-off Ireland programmes could have tapped into already negative perceptions that a strong Irish economy had failed to translate in materially better living standards or welfare," said Mr Hughes.
Consumers' view of their financial situation was little changed in August compared to July. However, the view of prospects for the coming year was weaker, according to the survey results. Only one in four consumers was positive about the economic outlook in the coming year, while two in five felt that economic conditions would worsen.
The results come from a sample of survey respondents, collected in advance of recent manufacturing job loss announcements in Donegal and Louth. A more positive view was evident in consumer views of the prevailing buying climate, as consumers took advantage of the summer sales.
According to Mr Hughes, the poor trend in consumer sentiment could continue.
"We think the poor August sentiment reading could be repeated in September data when more high-profile job losses and a further surge in energy costs can be expected to take their toll," he said.
"On the basis of the historical relationship between sentiment and consumer spending, Irish economic growth might be notably softer in the latter stages of 2005 than at the beginning of the year." Mr Hughes added.