Cantillon: Government banking on more good news

If the details can be finalised and the Government gets the first payment of money back from AIB, the exchequer could report a surplus for 2015, albeit the off nature of the AIB receipts means it would not be included in the formal counting of the deficit by the EU.

Still, you could see the Government lining up to hail yet another piece of “good news” in the seemingly endless procession that has been the improvement of the public finances in 2015.

AIB, you may remember, has agreed to repay €1.7 billion to the exchequer in part-redemption of preference shares invested during the crash. This was the good news from the bank’s announcement on the matter, though the decision to turn the remaining €2 billion-plus of preference shares into yet more equity for the State is the downside.

There will also be more cash to come before the attempted float of AIB shares which could, depending on who is in government, be in early summer next year, though more likely to be in autumn.

Before that, in June, AIB is due to redeem another €1.6 billion in convertible stock. The exchequer will benefit from a hefty final coupon on this in the meantime, which will amount to €160 million. Still a way to go, of course, to return the €20 billion or so poured in to the bank during the crisis.

The timing is tight if the preference share cash is to hit the State’s bank account by the end of the year. As well as all the technical and legal work, AIB has to hold an extraordinary general meeting, due on December 16th.

While the State’s shareholding will carry the day, it is not impossible that some shareholder could consider legal action, given the losses on the nominal value of existing shares.

However, the odds must be that the money will most likely be repaid to the State, if not before the end of the year, then certainly before the general election, reducing the level of national debt.

Minister for Finance Michael Noonan has managed to ensure that what proceeds have come back from the banks so far have gone to pay down debt. However, with considerable booty due from AIB in 2016 – assuming the float goes ahead – the general election campaign will feature a debate on whether this money might best be used elsewhere. EU rules, which decree that once-off revenues should not be used to pay for ongoing projects, may be a block here.

Whatever route is chosen, there remains a strong case for having some kind of financial buffer in place in the years ahead, a goal achievable either by just paying down our still high debt level or setting money aside in a rainy-day fund.