It hasn’t gone away, you know. The controversy over the sale of the National Asset Management Agency’s Northern Ireland portfolio erupted again this week as two men were arrested in connection with the matter by the British National Crime Agency.
The controversy surrounds allegations of fraud around the sale of €1.6 billion of Nama loans to US investment firm Cerberus. The men were arrested on Tuesday following searches carried out in Co Down.
Taoiseach Enda Kenny again resisted calls for an inquiry despite the two arrests, while Independent TD Mick Wallace has made a number of claims under Dáil privilege about Nama executives and advisers, including former Northern Ireland advisory board member Frank Cushnahan and former executive Ronnie Hanna.
There was better news for Kenny on the jobs front as figures this week showing the unemployment rate fell to a new post-crash low of 7.8 per cent in May – a level not seen since October 2008 just after the bank guarantee.
The number of workers classified as unemployed fell by 1,500 to 169,700 in May. This equated to an annual decrease of 38,300 or 1.8 per cent. The figures also showed that youth unemployment, which was at 20.8 per cent just 12 months ago, has fallen to 15 per cent.
And there are more jobs on the way. Amazon is to create 500 of them in Dublin over the next two years as it seeks to expand its European workforce. They will be mainly high-tech positions, with the company seeking data centre technicians, software engineers and customer support staff.
Accounting and consulting firm EY plans to add 220 jobs over the next year while also opening new offices in Dublin and Galway. This will take its head count to just under 2,100 by next June. In addition, the firm plans to increase its graduate intake in September from 200 to 250.
The additional staff will be based across EY’s seven locations in Ireland, including its new offices in the Station Building on Dublin’s Harcourt Street and Eyre Square in Galway, where 25 people will be located.
Dublin-based Datalex is also set to add 200 jobs to its global workforce in the next 18 months, with half of that number based in its Dublin offices. The roles will be highly skilled, with the company recruiting senior software developers, architects, analysts and project managers, among others.
The Irish company that runs the Tiger chain of retail stores is to capitalise on the roaring trade it has been doing in recent times and open up to 12 new shops by the end of 2017. It’s rebranding the group as Flying Tiger Copenhagen from next month. It currently operates 23 stores in the Republic and one in the North.
The only bugbear for job-hunters might lie in a Unite report this week which claimed the Republic was a low-pay economy with high levels of income inequality compared to other prosperous countries.
Research in The Truth About Irish Wages study indicated that low-paid employees comprised a disproportionately large percentage of the Irish workforce compared to other rich EU countries, with almost a quarter in low-paid jobs.
Jobs are one thing, but how is the wider economy performing? There are apparent contractions. Despite the steady flow of good news, consumer confidence fell to a 14-month low in May.
According to the KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2016, there was no dramatic deterioration in circumstances, but there was a clear downgrading of outlook in people’s minds on jobs and household finances.
The index fell to 98.1 in May from 102.7 in April, the lowest since March 2015. The decline in Irish consumer sentiment in May was broadly based, with all five components of the index posting lower readings than in April.
That statistic tallies with Central Bank figures which show Irish people are continuing to scrimp, save and shirk new loans in favour of paying down existing debt.
Household lending slumped by 3.5 per cent in April, compared with the same period in 2015, as mortgage loans fell by €176 million during the month, or by 2.3 per cent in the year.
Households repaid €1.8 billion more than was advanced in new loans.
One place that seems to be immune from the malaise is cyberspace with Irish consumers now spending €850,000 an hour online. That’s up 20 per cent on four years ago, making the Republic one of the fastest growing digital economies in the world.
There was also some cause for comfort in mortgage approvals, which fell by a less than expected 1.9 per cent in the three months ending April 2016. Some 2,307 mortgage applications were approved, perhaps signalling a growing acceptance of the Central Bank’s new mortgage lending rules.
One metric through which to get a broader picture of the economy and wider society are the World Competitiveness Yearbook rankings. The Republic has jumped to seventh in the latest list, which is a rise of nine places and its best performance since 2000.
Each country’s ranking is based on an analysis of more than 340 criteria derived from four principal factors: economic performance, government efficiency, business efficiency and infrastructure. A survey of some 5,400 business executives is also taken into account.
Hong Kong was ranked first, with Switzerland second and the US third. Singapore, Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway and Canada completed the top 10.
However, this is no time to be counting any chickens. Having turned the corner into June, the British in/out referendum on the EU seems that bit more real and the OECD has warned that a Brexit could lead to a 1.2 per cent fall in Irish GDP.
The uncertainty hit manufacturing activity which grew at its slowest pace in almost three years in May with export orders falling. The Investec Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, which is designed to provide a leading indicator of the health of the industry, fell to 51.5 in May, the weakest figure since July 2013, from 52.6 in April. A reading above 50 means the industry is expanding.
The ESB warned in a prospectus that accompanied a bond sale that the prospects of the UK leaving would have “an adverse impact on the group’s operations, prospects and/or financial condition”. The energy industry has operated as a single market across the island of Ireland since 2007. It has also committed to build its presence in Britain under an “all islands market”.
