In the year following the first IRA ceasefire, the number of people holidaying in Northern Ireland shot up by 67 per cent. After the IRA bombing of Canary Wharf, numbers fell by a third.

"There was such euphoria after the first ceasefire," says Mr Ian Henderson, chief executive of the Northern Ireland Tourist Board (NITB). "It was a wave of emotion but it was turned off like a tap with Canary Wharf."

The period after the 1994 ceasefire, described by one businessman as "the Golden Year", gives some hint of what business in the North could look forward to in a more stable political climate.

Although a Yes vote in the May 22nd referendum will not guarantee peace, Northern business leaders believe it will be a major step toward creating a more favourable and positive environment in which business can flourish and more jobs can be created.

"Evaluated from a business and economic perspective, a Yes vote would be very favourable," says Mr Nigel Smyth, director of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) in Northern Ireland.

Although economic growth in the North has outpaced all other regions in Britain this decade, most business people believe the region has failed to fully realise its potential over the last 30 years.

The recurring images of violence and hatred flashed across television screens worldwide have taken their toll, discouraging tourists and investors alike and making many of those who would otherwise have done business in the North reluctant to visit the region.

While few in business circles expect miracles, and most accept that a long and arduous process lies ahead, they view the Belfast Agreement as the first step toward the creation of a more normal business environment.

"At last, we will be operating on a level playing field and we won't have to spend days explaining away the image," says Sir George Quigley, chairman of Ulster Bank and of the Northern Ireland Economic Council.

The people of Northern Ireland got their first taste of the economic benefits that could accompany peace earlier this week when Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, Mr Gordon Brown, announced a £315 million sterling financial package to modernise the North's economy and underpin the agreement.

Although the package is not conditional on a Yes vote in the referendum, Mr Brown pointed out that it would be more successful in a peaceful political climate.

But peace and stability in the North would bring far more than the government package with tourism and investment generally seen as the sectors that would benefit most from a more settled environment.

Against the odds, the NITB managed to deliver growth of 2 to 3 per cent each year in tourism numbers in the decade up to 1994. But this was a time when tourist figures in the Republic were growing by 9 to 10 per cent. Tourism in Northern Ireland accounts for just 2 per cent of the region's GDP compared with an estimated 6 to 7 per cent in the Republic.

The NITB estimates the number of visitors should increase by 30 per cent over the next three years with the number of holiday visitors rising by 88 per cent. The growth should quickly translate into jobs with some 4,000 to 5,000 jobs created between now and 2001.

"While the Good Friday Agreement is a matter for the people of Northern Ireland to decide, I am confident that more peaceful conditions would enable the existing upward trend of inward investment to rise faster and quicker," says Dr Alan Gillespie, chairman of the North's Industrial Development Board (IDB).

The CBI estimates that as many as 1,500 jobs a year could be created by increased investment. These are likely to be high-quality jobs in the high-tech area.

Stability will make it easier for firms to export as customers will be more willing to come to the North to do business. Some 30 to 40 per cent of the CBI's members expect to be able to boost exports in a better political climate.

Many firms also hope that more normal relations between the two parts of the island will help boost exports to this state, further narrowing Northern Ireland's trade deficit with the Republic which stood at £130 million in 1995/96.

Then there is the "feel-good factor". Business people say it is impossible to quantify but demand should increase as confidence generally improves, retailers move in and the property market becomes more buoyant.

Peaceful conditions would also arrest the drift of young people from the North, even encouraging some of those who have left to return.

Business leaders also believe that peace and stability would finally provide some space for the structural weaknesses in the North's economy to be tackled.

As in the Republic, unemployment, particularly long-term unemployment, is an area that needs special attention.

Northern unemployment stands at more than 8 per cent of the workforce, above the levels in the rest of Britain, while half the jobless are long-term unemployed.

Efforts to rebalance the economy, reducing its traditional dependence on the public sector and on low-tech industries will also be necessary.

Any scaling down of the British military presence in Northern Ireland would have negative implications for demand as overall spending by the security services falls off and the demand for indirect services by personnel is reduced.

But business leaders are hopeful that if this happens gradually, it can be offset by growth in other areas of the economy.

Agriculture, which has suffered because of the ban on British beef, will also need assistance to face the challenges that lie ahead including the next round of talks of the World Trade Organisation and changes in European Union rules governing agriculture.