BELFAST BRIEFING:THE NORTH'S construction sector is continuing to bear the brunt of the economic slowdown, according to the results of a survey to be published today.

The latest research from Ulster Bank shows major job losses were yet again recorded by the construction industry last month in Northern Ireland.

The severe contraction in the sector over the last 12 months has left thousands of former workers without jobs and without any prospect of finding new employment in the industry.

Northern Ireland saw the biggest year-on-year drop in house prices across the UK in the first quarter of this year.

There is little confidence in the housing market in the North at this time. Prices have fallen rapidly, mortgage lending has dropped sharply and there appears to be no appetite among home-owners to either sell or buy new properties.

There are some signs that the dramatic drop in the price of first-time properties has prompted some fresh interest among prospective buyers.

Yet evidence that there is a prospect of a recovery in any sector of the housing market is largely anecdotal and appears only to be supported by those with more than a passing interest in talking the local housing market up.

The reality is that with the housing market still in steep decline and prices still falling there will be significantly more construction job losses in the North in the months ahead.

The construction sector may be at the coal face of the downturn but there is not a single sector or industry which has escaped the impact of the recession in the North, according to the latest feedback from companies based in Northern Ireland.

The Ulster Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) shows there was another “steep contraction of private sector activity” last month in the North.

Richard Ramsey, Northern Ireland economist with Ulster Bank, said the latest survey shows private sector activity in the North “contracted at a faster rate than any other UK region during the first quarter of 2009”.

He said this reflected a continuation of the trend that was evident throughout 2008 but compounding the problem was the pace of job losses sweeping across Northern Ireland.

Ramsey highlights how staffing levels have decreased throughout the past 13 months, and that the pace of job shedding remained close to the series record seen last October.

According to the latest Ulster Bank PMI, construction and retail remain the worst performing sectors but new business in the North’s private sector also “fell at a substantial rate in March”.

Businesses blame weak demand on poor economic conditions and depressed business confidence.

It is a gloomy scenario for companies operating in the North, and evidence would suggest it is not going to radically improve in the short-term.

Yet according to a leading academic at one of the UK’s top management schools the current economic conditions need not necessarily spell disaster for Northern Ireland – particularly for small firms.

Gerard Burke firmly believes that in every economic downturn, in every sector of the economy, there will be businesses which fail.

Burke, who is the director of the Business Growth and Development Programme at the Cranfield University School of Management, also believes there will be businesses that “grasp the upside of the downturn and emerge as winners”.

He believes there are six forms of business behaviour that grasp the upside of downturns and are winners, and the first essential behaviour is to “be in control”.

He says winners take control of their own destiny and are strong and rigorous in managing their business.

Burke says firms must also “be confident” and urges them to look beyond the short-term and be confident of their medium to long-term future.

He believes confidence is infectious and will spread throughout a business to its employees, suppliers and customers to create a positive end result. Burke also says businesses must essentially be both “distinctive” and “strong” if they are to stand any chance of surviving an economic slowdown.

He encourages firms to hold on to their distinctiveness and communicate effectively to customers and clients why they should be prepared to pay for it.

But Burke also warns that unless companies are prepared to take a strong stance and rigorously manage their business by focusing on the things that really matter, they could effectively cancel out any previous gains.

He believes that the final two “behaviours of winners” are to “be wise” and “be ready”.

Burke believes businesses who are now prepared to take control of their own destiny and who are ready to seize the opportunity will ultimately emerge as winners.

In the current circumstances, as unemployment grows and an increasing number of firms go bust, businesses in the North could do worse than embrace the philosophy of emerging from the recession as a winner.

Watch a free pod cast of the six behaviours of winners in a downturn at http://www.som.cranfield.ac.uk/som/bgp