JOE GANTLEY steps down today as chairman of the Cork Airport Authority (CAA) with no word on his replacement.

Minister for Transport Noel Dempsey is thought to be mulling a few names but there is no indication when a replacement will be appointed.

With the aviation industry in a tailspin and the economy going down the toilet, giving Cork and Shannon their independence from Dublin might not be such a good idea anymore. If Dempsey has any reservations about the viability of this plan, now is the time to voice them. A new chairman for the CAA is only worth appointing if separation is to proceed.

Cork is due to separate from the Dublin Airport Authority (DAA) with debts of €113 million. Along with Shannon, it recently submitted a revised business plan to the DAA for it to sign off and send to the Government. Approval is then needed from both the Ministers for Transport and Finance for separation to proceed.

Cork and Dublin are likely to post low single-digit growth in passenger numbers this year while Shannon will report a decline due to a reduction in transatlantic services and the ending of its Heathrow route.

It promises to be a long, cold winter for all three airports, particularly Shannon, as airlines trim their schedules to save money.

In Dublin, Ryanair plans to mothball four aircraft. It says it is losing money at Shannon, in spite of a bargain-basement deal on airport charges. Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary has given no guarantees that it will renew its deal in 2010. What then for Shannon? It is already hugely dependent on Ryanair - could it survive without it? Not likely.

As it stands, Cork will pass out Shannon as the State's second-biggest international airport in the not-too-distant future. Cork is thought to make a tidy contribution to the DAA's bottom line. DAA chairman Gary McGann might be happy to keep the rebel airport in the family fold.

If separation happens, you can bet your bottom euro that Ryanair will play Cork and Shannon off against each other. Would Aer Lingus hang around on short-haul services out of Cork if Ryanair muscled in on the scene? Aer Arann has been hammered on the Dublin-Cork route by Ryanair, and Ryanair ran easyJet out of Shannon.

Separation seemed a great idea four years ago when the economy was booming and dirt-cheap fares were the norm. That's all changed now. Dempsey has a lot to ponder.