Main Points
- Concerns are growing over the almost-expired US-Iran ceasefire after a US naval destroyer seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship
- US vice-president JD Vance is expected to fly to Islamabad on Tuesday if Iran agrees to further talks in the Pakistani capital
- Senior Iranian official says that Tehran is “positively reviewing” its participation in the talks
- US president Donald Trump earlier on Monday claimed a deal could be made “today” on a “mostly complete” agreement
- Israeli air strikes hit a town in southern Lebanon despite 10-day ceasefire
- Oil prices jumped to more than $95 a barrel on Monday
Best Reads
- Analysis: The Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s strongest card in peace negotiations
- John FitzGerald: Ireland faces a possible winter recession
That concludes Monday’s live coverage on the Middle East conflict.
We will be back tomorrow with more breakings news and analysis on irishtimes.com.
Tehran ‘positively reviewing’ participation in talks
US vice president JD Vance is expected to fly to Islamabad on Tuesday if Iran agrees to further talks in the Pakistani capital as the deadline for the current ceasefire looms.
Vance will travel with Steve Witkoff, president Donald Trump’s special envoy, and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law – though Iran’s president warned there remained a “deep historical mistrust” of the US.
Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran was concerned about “unconstructive and contradictory signals from American officials” and concluded they amounted to an effort to seek the country’s surrender. “Iranians do not submit to force,” he said.
However, one senior Iranian official told the Reuters news agency that Tehran is “positively reviewing” its participation, amid reports that its delegation would again be headed by parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf if Vance attends.
Tehran called for an end to the US blockade of the strait of Hormuz, while Trump repeated a demand that Iran should never be allowed to build a nuclear weapon and even said he would be willing to meet Iranian leaders himself.
Earlier, the US president had confused the situation by telling the New York Post that Vance and his team were “heading over now” and he expected them to be arriving in Islamabad Monday evening.
This was quickly corrected by US officials who said there had been a discussion about Vance leaving on Monday, but the vice-president was in fact expected to depart on Tuesday morning if the talks were taking place. – Guardian
Californian woman arrested for alleged sale of drones and bombs to Iran
A California woman was arrested at Los Angeles International Airport over the weekend after federal prosecutors said she had facilitated millions of dollars worth of covert weapons sales for the Iranian government.
Shamim Mafi (44) of Los Angeles, was arrested Saturday while attempting to board a flight to Turkey, according to Bill Essayli, the first assistant US attorney for central California.
Federal investigators accused Mafi, a legal US resident, of functioning as a proxy for Iranian intelligence.
Prosecutors say Mafi helped broker millions of dollars in sales of drones, bombs, bomb fuses, assault weapons and ammunition, much of it through a company called Atlas International Business LLC and a similarly named entity she established in Oman. – The New York Times
Tight time frame for talks in Pakistan
The current ceasefire in the Gulf conflict ends on “Wednesday evening Washington time,” US president Donald Trump has said.
Trump also revealed the principal US negotiators, vice-president JD Vance, White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, will depart Washington on Tuesday for the 14-hour flight to Islamabad to take part in negotiations.
Iran has not as yet confirmed it will take part in talks.
Trump has said an extension of the ceasefire in the event of the sides not being able to reach an agreement on Tuesday was “highly unlikely”.
Meanwhile, a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon is scheduled for Thursday, according to Israeli and US officials. Earlier, Lebanon’s president said those peace talks should be separate from any Iran negotiations.
Israeli air strike hits town in southern Lebanon despite 10-day ceasefire
Lebanese official media said an Israeli strike hit a town in the country’s south on Monday despite a 10-day ceasefire in force between Israel and Iran-backed militant group Hizbullah.
The state-run National News Agency said that “an enemy drone targeted the vicinity of the Litani river in the town of Qaqaiyat al-Jisr”, without immediately reporting casualties.
Under the ceasefire, Israel reserves the right to act against “planned, imminent or ongoing attacks”. – The Guardian
Unlikely Trump’s optimism for Iran deal will win through
It is looking increasingly unlikely that US president Donald Trump’s optimism for an Iran-US peace deal by Monday night, will win through.
Trump said his negotiating team would arrive in the Pakistani capital Islamabad on Monday for direct talks to their Iranian counterparts and that a deal was “almost complete”.
The Iranian side, however, refused to commit to take part in talks, citing the US blockade on Iranian ports in the Gulf and the seizure by the Americans of an Iranian cargo ship.
Now, shortly before 10pm in Pakistan, the New York Times is citing well-placed sources to say the US negotiating team, led by vice-president JD Vance, White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, is still in Washington.
A flight from Washington to Islamabad typically takes about 14 hours.
The volatile two-week ceasefire in the Gulf war is due to run out on Wednesday.
It was unclear if other members of a US delegation were en route or already in Islamabad for talks.
The day so far
Trump declares deal with Iran almost complete, Iran disagrees
Confusion about the next round of peace talks between the US and Iran is growing, with Iran saying it has no current plans to attend talks in Islamabad, Pakistan.
On the other hand, Fox News is reporting US president Donald Trump as saying a deal could be signed “today”, Monday, as vice-president JD Vance is on his way to Pakistan.
Trump is reported to have said Iran is ready to accept a “mostly complete” agreement that includes handing over its enriched uranium stockpile.
However, Iran’s foreign ministry said “no decision has been made” on whether to hold new talks. The ministry said uranium will “under no circumstances be transferred anywhere”.
Iran’s official news agency Irna, cited Washington’s “excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade”, which Iran considers a breach of the ceasefire, as reasons for Iran’s stance.
The fragile two-week ceasefire is set to expire this Wednesday.
Over the weekend, tensions escalated when the US intercepted the Iranian cargo ship Touskain in the Gulf of Oman. Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Irna said Iran has “no plans” for the next round of talks and has not made a decision to attend the Islamabad meeting.
While Fox News is highlighting optimism from the Trump regime and says a team led by Vance will be in Islamabad on Monday night in anticipation of a deal, Al Jazeera, the BBC, France 24, NBC and The Guardian, among others, are reporting that Tehran has “no plans to participate” in the talks.
Iran’s president raises hope of further peace talks
Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian sounded a conciliatory note today when he said the continuing war in the Middle East “benefits no one”.
Iran has ruled out further talks in Islamabad for the time being stating that the United States had “excessive demands” and “lack the seriousness for diplomacy”.
In remarks today during a visit to the ministry of justice, Pezeshkian says Iranians “must be kept informed of the country’s realities” and “providing inaccurate information or unrealistic promises not only fails to help resolve issues, but also undermines public trust”.
He added: “Both achievements and challenges should be shared honestly with the public.”
What are other countries in Europe doing to cope with the fuel crisis? Ireland’s package is relatively generous compared with some.
You can read our analysis here.
Government should have kept powder dry, says economist
Economist professor John FitzGerald is scathing in his criticism of the Government’s handling of the fuel crisis, stating that it did too much too soon and should have seen how the situation was developing internationally.
“The Government cannot prevent world oil prices from rocketing, inevitably leaving us as a nation much worse off. But, given the risk of further significant energy price hikes, which would bring high inflation and recession, the Government should have held back its financial firepower to look after those on low incomes who would be worst affected, if necessary.
“The package introduced 10 days ago is extremely poorly targeted, frittering away valuable resources. As the ESRI, and my Trinity colleague Barra Roantree, have pointed out, most of the money from cuts in excise tax goes to the better off.”
You can read his analysis here.
Xi calls Saudi Arabia’s crown prince about blockade
Chinese president Xi Jinping called for normal passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz to be maintained, in a phone call with Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, held as Beijing steps up efforts to help end the Iran war.
China is concerned over renewed instability around the strategic waterway, as a US-Iran ceasefire came under fresh strain after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship and Tehran signalled it would not join new peace talks for now.
China is the main buyer of Iranian crude. Iran has largely closed the strait to ships other than its own since the United States and Israel launched the war in February, while Washington has imposed a blockade of Iranian ships since last week.
China advocates an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire, and insists on resolving conflicts in the Middle East through political and diplomatic channels, state news agency Xinhua cited Xi as saying.
“The Strait of Hormuz should remain open to normal passage, as this serves the common interests of regional countries and the international community,” he told the Saudi leader. – Reuters
Pope condemns ‘authoritarians’ who exploit the poor
Pope Leo would appear to be not backing down in his spat with US president Donald Trump.
Trump criticised Pope Leo saying he was “not a fan” of Leo and called him a “very liberal person” who is “weak on crime” and “terrible on foreign policy”.
Trump’s remarks have been widely condemned and caused a degree of discomfort for the two most prominent Catholics in his cabinet, vice-president JD Vance, who is a Catholic convert, and secretary of state Marco Rubio.
In response the pope said he was not seeking to debate Trump when he criticised “tyrants” for spending billions on wars in a speech earlier this week.
The pontiff said the remarks, delivered days after the high-profile clash with the US president, had been written a fortnight earlier – “well before the president ever commented on myself”.
“And yet as it happens, it was looked at as if I was trying to debate, again, the president, which is not in my interest at all,” he told reporters aboard a flight to Angola on Saturday.
Leo did not mention Trump by name but did say in Angola on Monday that many people in the world were being “exploited by authoritarians and defrauded by the rich”.
The first US pope told worshippers at a Mass in Saurimo, near the Democratic Republic of Congo border, that violence and oppression went against the Christian message.
“Every form of oppression, violence, exploitation and dishonesty negates the resurrection of Christ,” said the pontiff, referring to the core belief of Christianity that Jesus rose from the dead after being crucified.
His visit to Angola marks the third leg of an ambitious 10-day Africa tour, one of the most complicated ever conducted by a pope, with stops in 11 cities and towns in four countries, traversing nearly 18,000km over 18 flights.
Iranian official says US is ‘not serious’ about talks
Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei has said Washington has shown it was “not serious” about pursuing the diplomatic process and Tehran would not change its clearly stated demands, adding it did not believe in deadlines or ultimatums when safeguarding national interests.
Referring to the US maintaining its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and its seizure of an Iranian ship, Baghaei said: “While claiming diplomacy and readiness for negotiations, the US is carrying out behaviours that do not in any way indicate seriousness in pursuing a diplomatic process.”
He said Tehran has no plans to attend the potential negotiations, although a final decision has not been made. – Reuters/Bloomberg
China condemns ‘forcible interception’ of Iranian-flagged vessel
China has called for peace talks between Iran and the US to resume following the seizure of the Iranian-flagged Touska ship.
Foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun has told a news conference that China expresses “concern” over the “forcible interception” of the vessel by US forces, according to the AFP news agency.
China’s foreign ministry previously called the US naval blockade of Iranian ports “irresponsible and dangerous”.
The country is estimated to buy around 90 per cent of the oil that Iran exports – with analysts saying the US blockade may be designed to pressure China into applying its own pressure on Iran.
European shares slide again
European shares declined on Monday, as hopes for peace in the Middle East ebbed with tensions reigniting after Washington seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade and Tehran vowed to retaliate.
Investors have grown increasingly jittery as the US-Iran ceasefire, set to expire Tuesday, appears fragile.
Iran rejected fresh peace talks with the US just hours after US president Donald Trump said he would dispatch envoys to Pakistan while threatening new strikes unless Tehran accepts his terms.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 0.8 per cent to 621.52 points.
Major regional markets also fell, with France’s Cac and Germany’s Dax down 0.9 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively. – Reuters
Message from the Editor
Ireland seeks cuts from EU in aviation fuel costs
Ireland is set to ask the European Commission to take the unusual step of dropping a tariff on aviation fuel to lower fuel costs for airlines.
It comes amid fears of flight cancellations this summer due to the global fuel crisis.
Aer Lingus announced on Sunday it planned to cancel or reschedule about 2 per cent of its flights, affecting thousands of passengers, as it carries out what it describes as “mandatory maintenance” on aircraft.
Minister for Energy Darragh O’Brien said on Sunday he would write to the EU energy commissioner asking for duties on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) imported from the United States to be removed on an exceptional basis while the conflict in the Middle East continues.
Harry McGee reports.
Unreported US military flights an ‘oversight’ says DFA
Our lead story this morning concerns the 248 US military flights over Ireland than were disclosed by the Government.
The figures show a 56 per cent surge in US military overflights of Ireland last month as the US launched hundreds of strikes on Iran.
Following queries from The Irish Times, the Department of Foreign Affairs attributed the underreporting of overflights to an administrative error.
Conor Gallagher and Rachel Lavin’s report.
Oil price hikes could last six months, says French supermarket boss
The global energy crisis caused by the US-Israeli war with Iran could last until the winter, the head of French supermarket chain Leclerc said on Monday.
“We have up to six months at the very least, and perhaps going through to the coming winter, of an energy crisis,” Michel-Edouard Leclerc, the company’s executive chairman, told Europe 1 radio and CNews TV.
Oil prices jumped back up on Monday, after the United States said it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade, while Iran said it would retaliate.
Strait of Hormuz now effectively shut again
Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a near standstill this morning.
A brief and confused reopening over the weekend ended with the first US seizure of an Iranian vessel – underscoring how difficult it will be to restore activity in the vital strait.
Transits through the waterway have reduced to a trickle over seven weeks of war in the Gulf, as Iran tightens control in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes.
On Friday, that paralysis appeared to be at an end as Iran and the US announced a reopening, prompting oil to plunge and vessels to rush for the crossing – only for the situation to rapidly unravel.
Yesterday the US navy seized an Iranian cargo ship in waters off the Iranian port of Jask in the Gulf of Oman as it headed toward Hormuz – the first such move during this US blockade – raising the stakes for shipowners operating across the region and widening the area seen to be risky for transits.
Benchmark oil has jumped in response, as a historic supply crisis begins to look even more prolonged. – Bloomberg
Oil jumps again as Strait of Hormuz uncertainty returns
Oil jumped and US equity-index futures retreated as traders turned cautious following a weekend flare-up in US-Iran tensions, curbing optimism that strains in the Middle East were easing.
Brent rose 5.5 per cent to $95.33 a barrel after the US navy seized an Iranian ship during a chaotic weekend that saw Tehran firing at vessels and reimposing controls in the Strait of Hormuz.
S&P 500 futures fell 0.7 per cent after the underlying index closed at a record high on Friday following Iran’s earlier declaration that the vital waterway was “completely open.”
Contracts indicated European shares will decline 1.4 per cent.
Ceasefire under pressure following US seizure of container ship
Iran has launched drone strikes on US military vessels in the Gulf of Oman, the Iranian semi-official news agency Tasnim reports.
It follows the US navy seizure of an Iranian-flagged container ship in the Gulf of Oman.
Earlier, Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya central headquarters – the country’s highest operational command unit co-ordinating the armed forces – described the US naval operation as a violation of the ceasefire.
It said it would “retaliate for this act of armed piracy by the US navy”.
Iran to enshrine control of Strait of Hormuz into law, says official
A former senior commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said Iran will “never” give up the Strait of Hormuz.
“It’s our inalienable right,” Ebrahim Azizi told the BBC. “Iran will decide the right of passage, including permissions for vessels to pass through the strait.”
Azizi forecast Iran will introduce a Bill in parliament enshrining Iran’s control of the strait.
“We are introducing a Bill in parliament, based on article 110 of the constitution, which includes the environment, maritime safety and national security – and the armed forces will implement the law,” he said.
Azizi heads up the Iranian parliament’s Committee for National Security and Foreign Policy.
Israel threatens ‘full force’ against Hizbullah
Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, said his military will use “full force” in Lebanon – even during the ongoing ceasefire – should Israeli troops face any threat from Hizbullah.
The Israeli military has warned residents in southern Lebanon not to move south of a specified line of villages or approach areas near the Litani River, saying its forces remain deployed in the area during a ceasefire due to what it described as continued Hizbullah activity.
In a statement, military spokesperson Avichay Adraee also urged civilians not to return to multiple border villages until further notice, citing security risks.
Lebanon’s military said, meanwhile, it has reopened a road and bridge between the city of Nabatieh and Khardali that was damaged by Israeli strikes in the south.
French president Emmanuel Macron will meet Lebanese prime minister Nawaf Salam in Paris on Tuesday, his office announced, a day after a French peacekeeper was killed in Lebanon.
Footage of US marines rappelling on to Iranian vessel released
Video posted on social media by the US showed the interception of the MV Touska by US forces.
The video includes audio of the container ship’s crew being warned that they will be fired on if they refused to stop. “Vacate your engine room,” a US sailor can be heard saying. “We’re prepared to subject you to disabling fire.”
The video then shows the USS Spruance firing on the Touska.
In a later post on X, US central command said US marines had left the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli by helicopter and rappelled on to the Iranian-flagged vessel.
It said the US had “disabled Touska’s propulsion when the commercial ship failed to comply with repeated warnings” over a six-hour period.
Iran has since vowed to retaliate but has not acted yet.
Oil prices surge amid uncertainty over strait and peace talks
Oil prices surged on a re-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East war after Iran closed the strait of Hormuz at the weekend, just a day after reopening it.
In early trading on Monday, the price of Brent crude climbed 5.8 per cent to $95.64 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate increased 6.4 per cent to $87.90 per barrel. S+P 500 futures fell by 0.6 per cent while European futures fell 1.1 per cent.
However, equity benchmarks in Seoul, Taipei and Tokyo shrugged off risks to advance, with Taiwan’s shares touching a record high and the other two not far behind. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.8 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei climbed 1 per cent and South Korea’s Kopsi rose 1.4 per cent.
Despite this, one of the strongest notes of caution in markets on Monday came from Australia’s largest business lender, National Australia Bank, which flagged a $500 million impairment charge as it expects the war to drive up bad debts.
Mideast ceasefire on edge as US seizes Iranian cargo ship
Concerns are growing that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran might not hold after the US said it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade and Iran vowed to retaliate.
Efforts to build a more lasting peace in the region likewise appeared to be on shaky ground, as Iran said it would not participate in a second round of negotiations that the US had hoped to kick off before the ceasefire expires on Tuesday.
The US has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran has lifted and then reimposed its own blockade on marine traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
The US military said it fired on an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, the M/V Touska, as it sailed toward Iran’s Bandar Abbas port. “We have full custody of their ship, and are seeing what’s on board!” US president Donald Trump wrote on social media.
Iran’s military said the ship had been travelling from China.
Iranian state media reported that Tehran had rejected new peace talks, citing the ongoing blockade, threatening rhetoric, and Washington’s shifting positions and “excessive demands”.
