Ukraine move shows enlargement is no longer unthinkable for the EU

The idea of the European Union adding new member states was essentially moribund until Russia invaded Ukraine. The war transformed thinking by baldly revealing the importance of offering eastern European countries an alternative to Russian influence. It caused profound public sympathy with the Ukrainian people that eclipsed years of scepticism towards enlargement in the West.

The daily demonstration of what Ukrainians were willing to sacrifice for their ambitions of EU integration – which have been met with Russian violence since the pro-EU uprising of 2014 was followed swiftly by the annexation of Crimea – shamed EU leaders into supporting their membership hopes.

[ EU grants Ukraine and Moldova membership candidate status ]

It is telling that even as the Kyiv government fought a war against a brutal larger force it prioritised the technical work of being assessed by the European Commission to evaluate the country’s progress in governance and democratic norms.

This found that Ukraine had already implemented 70 per cent of EU rules, norms and standards since the signing of an association agreement in 2016, aside from its involvement in programmes such as Horizon Europe and Erasmus.

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To progress further Ukraine needs to give teeth to its anti-corruption institutions to take on graft and curb the hold of its oligarchs, the commission recommended.

Even the once-hesitant Dutch accepted the assessment as “thorough” and “brutally honest”, prime minister Mark Rutte told journalists as EU leaders met to decide on candidate status this week.

It meant the 27 could agree something recently unthinkable: to grant candidate status not only to Ukraine but to its neighbour Moldova, which also fears Russian encroachment.

This was a statement of solidarity and commitment to a more hopeful future for the country even though there was an awareness that Kyiv has much more immediate needs for financial and military support to turn the tide in the war.

Nevertheless, the gathering revealed how long and arduous the path from being a candidate to becoming a member can be.

It was a disappointing day for the six western Balkan countries that emerged from the break-up of Yugoslavia and which have long been in the membership queue.

Bulgaria blocked the start of accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania, while Kosovo once again missed out on visa liberalisation despite meeting the requirements. It removes the incentive to undertake reforms if the promised rewards are withheld.

Each existing EU member state brings to the expansion debate its own existing history with the countries concerned. Five EU member states have still not recognised Kosovo – Ireland was among the earliest to do so – making accession complex.

Austria delayed the announcement of the granting of candidate status – which some had hoped would be out in time for the evening news programmes – by arguing for some statement of encouragement for Bosnia and Herzegovina, with which it has historical ties.

If further member states are to join the European Commission has increasingly suggested that the EU will have to reform itself first, to remove the ability of a single member state to veto certain decisions. It not only dogged the expansion talks on Thursday, but was also responsible for souring opinions towards enlargement and stalling its progress for years beforehand because of the frequent use of vetoes by newer members, namely Hungary.