Quarter-final preview New Zealand v South Africa: That the World Cup has reached the business end of proceedings can be gauged from the opening quarter-final tie between New Zealand and South Africa. As one writer has put it, they share a long and proud tradition of mutual loathing.

There's an argument for making this suitable viewing for over-18s only, or at any rate that children be accompanied by adults who can cover their eyes for the gory bits.

Then again, only adults could afford the tickets which are still on sale.

Neither of the heavyweight quarter-final pairings in Melbourne is near a sellout yet, thanks to excessive pricing, with 9,500 available as of yesterday for this game and 16,000 for the France-Ireland quarter-final on Sunday. Kiwis I've met in Melbourne will not shell out the asking price of Aus$295 or Aus$195 (about €180 and €120) for the Category A and B tickets still on the market.

The All Blacks' status as favourites for this quarter-final, a pairing which was writ large before the tournament began and cast in stone once the Springboks lost their Pool C game to England, is not as clear-cut as was the case then.

Their lineout has long been suspect, but their performance last week against Wales was another reminder that Super 12 rugby does not truly breed the grunt-and-grind tight-five play that was once a cherished tradition of All Blacks rugby and is still required to win world cups.

Under the slightly manic chopping and changing of Rudolf Straeuli, the Springboks have been described variously as "Neanderthal" and "dinosaur stuff". Yet there's no doubt that the coach has gradually unearthed a hungry, uncompromising pack in time-honoured Springboks tradition, who went toe to toe with England before putting the Samoan forwards to the sword last weekend.

Furthermore, with the introduction of the impressively cool 20-year-old outhalf Derick Hougaard for his starting debut last week, the Springboks suddenly had far more width and vision to their back play. The pity is that their outstanding back-rower Joe van Niekerk is out of the tournament, though in his stead comes the equally imposing figure of Danie Rossouw for his starting debut.

For their part, the All Blacks aren't quite at full tilt either. Tana Umaga is still injured, and though Leon McDonald's presence at outside centre solves their goalkicking problem, he's not in Umaga's league as a ball carrier.

It's no surprise that Chris Jack has been promoted at the expense of Brad Thorn. A fine athlete in open play, especially with ball in hand, Thorn is unexceptional in the lineout and in defence, and Jack will help counter the Boks' impressive lineout.

The All Blacks have won their last six Tri-Nations meetings with the Springboks, but the nagging World Cup baggage of two defeats, in the 1995 final and the 1999 third-place semi-final, remains, and no team has ever beaten the Springboks seven times in a row. Furthermore, South Africa eroded much of the psychological ill-effects of their 52-16 defeat to a rampant All Blacks in Pretoria by extending them to a hard-earned 19-11 win in Dunedin last August.

No doubt they will again seek to push up into the All Blacks and crowd out their ultra-dangerous and pacy backs as they did that night. One also presumes they will take them on up front, and give the ball enough air to chase and hound the All Blacks' outside three of Mils Muliaina, Doug Howlett and Joe Rokocoko before they can get into their counter-attacking stride.

The Springboks are also a better side than they were in August, although tellingly only seven of that starting XV will line out for the kick-off tomorrow. While Straeuli has at last seemingly hit on all the combinations he's happy with, with only that one enforced change in the back row, the failure to pick the same side for two games running in the last four years seems likely to hurt them when they come under pressure.

Furthermore, Hougaard had something of an armchair ride last week. The All Blacks forwards will not be as cowed as the Samoans were, nor will their backs stand off so much in defence.

True, there seemed to be more holes in the All Blacks' defence last week against the lively Welsh than in the proverbial soup-strainer. Missed tackles abounded, especially along the Carlos Spencer-Aaron Mauger-McDonald axis. Yet the the fright they got last week might actually benefit them.

They'll surely have spent the week smarting from the criticism. "Perhaps the most discomforting international for the All Blacks since World War II," wrote the esteemed Wynne Gray in the New Zealand Herald, and one imagines parliament was considering an emergency sitting when Wales led going into the final quarter.

However, as the experienced Springboks captain Corne Krige noted: "New Zealand seldom play poorly two matches in a row. They did not play and now their whole country is on their back. We know from history how they respond to criticism."

Hence a blacklash, so to speak, seems inevitable. The All Blacks have worked hard on their defence all week. Mauger, who drew unusually high praise from the normally taciturn John Mitchell, who described him as "a class act", will surely benefit from an overdue outing. And the thing about the All Blacks is that not only are they a more settled side, but they are also far more likely to get over the finishing line with less possession.

The Boks still look like they might struggle for tries against front-line opposition, and keeping the gifted Carlos Spencer quiet, along with the world's most potent outside three, for 80 minutes may prove impossible.

NEW ZEALAND: M Muliaina; D Howlett, L McDonald, A Mauger, J Rokocoko; C Spencer, J Marshall; D Hewett, K Mealamu, G Somerville, C Jack, A Williams, R Thorne (capt), R McCaw, J Collins. Replacements: M Hammett, K Meeuws, B Thorn, M Holah, S Devine, D Carter, C Ralph.

SOUTH AFRICA: J van der Westhuyzen; A Willemse, J Muller, De Wet Barry, T Delport; D Hougaard, J van der Westhuizen; C Bezuidenhout, J Smit, F Rautenbach, B Botha, V Matfield, C Krige (capt), D Rossouw, J Smit. Replacements: R Bands, D Coetzee, S Boome, S Burger, N de Kock, L Koen, J Fourie.

Referee: Tony Spreadbury (England).

Head-to-heads: Played 62. New Zealand 33 wins, South Africa 26 wins, 3 draws.

World Cup meetings: 1995 (final) South Africa 15 New Zealand 12. 1999 (third-place play-off) South Africa 22 New Zealand 18.

Betting (courtesy of Paddy Powers): 1/8 New Zealand, 25/1 Draw, 9/2 South Africa. Handicap odds (= South Africa +14pts) 10/11 New Zealand, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 South Africa.

Forecast: New Zealand to win.