Gordon D’Arcy: Leinster are favourites against La Rochelle - but for me, the odds are stacked against them

For the first time since I retired, a Munster victory over Leinster really stung. I have written consistently over the last few years that Munster needed to be better both in the national interest and to reintroduce some spice and jeopardy into this provincial rivalry.

It’s taken me a few days to understand why I am feeling this way. It’s all well and good putting words down on paper until they catch up with you. Munster stepped up and won at the expense of my team; I guess that rivalry never leaves you.

The celebrations on the pitch said it all. Graham Rowntree’s side hunted that victory and earned every bit of it, a well-coached side that arrived in the Aviva Stadium armed with a game plan and delivered a composed, passionate performance that sufficed to seal the result in the dying minutes.

Jack Crowley demonstrated an admirable nerve under intense pressure to decide the match with a sweet drop goal. The young outhalf earned the man-of-the-match plaudits.But leaving the kick aside, I thought neither he nor his Leinster counterpart Harry Byrne managed to put an authoritative stamp on the game.

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Crowley, to his credit, was more measured, didn’t chase it like Byrne, who on several occasions pushed passes rather than playing phases. There was a nice bit of bite between the two across a few moments, which will no doubt add to this fixture over the next few years.

The Munster pack won the day, their willingness to work hard and selflessly on both sides of the ball, allied to the faithful implementation of a game plan, ultimately provided Crowley with that final opportunity, in every sense of the phrase, as his boot propelled his team to the URC decider against the Stormers in Cape Town.

Until that point it was as finely balanced an encounter as we have had in years. This wasn’t the brawl of 2019, Munster came to play, and that attitude and commitment were downpayments on how the match panned out, right to the riveting end.

The first instinct to run on turnover possession from almost their own line was brave but it was underpinned by superb execution under large pressure. Munster’s handling in a general sense was top drawer, Leinster only had five scrum put-ins, the first after 35-minutes. But it was Munster’s kicking strategy that yielded tangible dividends and it was superior to that of their hosts.

They opted not to kick the ball off the pitch where possible, keeping the ball-in-play time very high at 44.15 minutes and also denying Leinster their favourite platform, the lineout, as a launch pad. Munster had the courage to keep the ball in hand and force Leinster into defending for long stints.

For the first time possibly since last year’s Champions Cup final defeat to La Rochelle in Marseilles, Leinster were required to make a huge amount of tackles – 299 in total – and this took its toll both physically and in terms of taking a little edge off their attack, where they were uncharacteristically inaccurate with the ball.

To complement their physical skills Munster were mentally attuned, they didn’t let their opponents outwork them, they were accurate at the breakdown when in possession and they showed great energy in defence, successful for the most part in preventing Leinster from getting their dangerous multiphase game going.

The net result was Leinster’s kicking game was reactionary, predicated on having to resort to the boot rather than it being a more proactive, positive action. For all their troubles, Leo Cullen’s side were leading with four minutes left and perhaps that is why the defeat smarts a little. They had victory within their grasp but let it slip.

My experience with matches like these is not to bemoan refereeing decisions that should or could have been made, but, as Joe Schmidt would say, “focus on the controllable”.

So instead of managing the last few minutes with clear-eyed precision, Leinster, not really under pressure, ended up offering their opponents one last chance to attack. Thomas Clarkson ran a line that didn’t need to be run, with little or no room for error, while Nick McCarthy should have chosen the easier pass to Joe McCarthy.

For the second season in a succession in the URC, Leinster have come up short at the semi-final stage and it takes the gloss off much of what they did in the tournament earlier in the season. Once again it shines a light on the production line and whether they have the depth of quality that others attribute to them.

The gamble to rotate the personnel didn’t work out. Instead it adversely affected the quality of the performance and once again leaves Leinster with one shot to redeem the season in Saturday’s Champions Cup final at the Aviva Stadium against Ronan O’Gara’s La Rochelle, their nemesis in the last two European tournaments.

Leinster will welcome back a dozen internationals, but you can almost taste the pressure as they try to find a playing solution to the impasse that they have faced in a brace of defeats to the French club. Cullen’s team might take a leaf out of Munster’s book, show up with a clear and concise plan, stay the course even if they can’t convert all their opportunities, and, crucially, find that way to win.

A singular focus and belief in the game plan go a long way to winning clutch matches. O’Gara has masterminded two wins over Leinster, and he’ll have noted from the Munster game one or two aspects of the way Leinster play, irrespective of personnel, that he can attack. The French side may opt to keep the ball in play and deny Leinster their preferred attacking platform.

As Leinster and La Rochelle collide once more at the pinnacle of European rugby, it is again a battle of sporting philosophies, two teams who both advocate and champion highly-skilled, high-tempo rugby. The difference is that Leinster need that option to thrive because they don’t have their opponent’s power game to employ when required.

For Leinster these matches are won and lost at the breakdown. The key question on Saturday is whether they can consistently generate quick ball to enable Jamison Gibson-Park to impose himself on the match and translate it into points on the scoreboard.

Getting selection right is of paramount importance to their chances of success and while the composition of the team is relatively straightforward to call, it will be instructive to see where Caelan Doris plays and whether Jason Jenkins starts.

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When Leinster are at their best, they win the tackle contact through footwork and evasion and, in this respect, Doris is the most dominant carrier. Moving him to the blindside takes him out of the position where he is most effective and valuable. Jenkins was signed to bring a physical edge to the pack, and his ability to deliver clean ruck ball with James Ryan will be huge.

Leinster can play but also must find a way to disrupt La Rochelle. The home side are bookies favourites but for me the odds are stacked against them in this one. If they find a way to win, it will require a five-star display.