Munster lively outsiders to beat Toulouse and progress to last 16

Champions Cup: Toulouse v Munster, Sunday, 3.15pm Irish time — Live on BT Sport

There can’t be many advantages in playing the five-time winners Toulouse at the Stade Ernest Wallon, but at least come kick-off all other matches in Pool B will have been concluded and Munster will know the lay of the land.

Going into the weekend, Munster stand sixth but should seventh-placed Montpellier take care of business at home to Declan Kidney’s London Irish, in 11th position on just one point, in Sunday’s lunchtime kick-off (1pm) the French champions will overtake them.

In a worst-case scenario, if Clermont and Sale also win on Saturday, then Munster could be in ninth place and outside the last 16 qualification threshold come kick-off. But, at home in Cape Town, the Stormers should beat eighth-placed Clermont, who are in a difficult transition and are now under stand-in head coach Jared Payne after Jonno Gibbes’s departure earlier this week.

Sale could overtake Munster, but only with a 20-point, or bonus-point win in Belfast. But if Ulster win their win-or-bust mission against Sale in the Kingspan, then neither of those two could overtake Munster.

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The likelihood, therefore, is that come kick-off Munster will be in seventh or eighth and presuming Leinster beat Racing, the latter would mean a last-16 tie against their old provincial rivals in the Aviva Stadium.

The caveat is that Toulouse top the pool ahead of La Rochelle on points difference, and thus may be chasing down whatever target Ronan O’Gara’s team set in Northampton on Saturday if that is within range.

Not that Graham Rowntree will be encumbering his players with any of this additional baggage beforehand, even if it may become advisable at half-time. They are travelling to the pink city to win and with a heightened level of belief.

Nonetheless, they face another searching physical examination, especially from Emmanuel Meafou and company in a heavyweight home tight five. The Toulouse pack are backed up by a 6-2 split, including Josh Brennan, son of Trevor, whose stock has risen this season and who recently signed a new contract with the rouge-et-noire.

Even without Thomas Ramos, Toulouse also possess the X-factor of the incomparable Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack, as well as Italian star Ange Capuozzo and Arthur Retiere on the bench.

Given Munster’s scrum issues in last season’s epic quarter-final, John Ryan has been reinstated after helping to lock the scrum in last month’s 18-13 defeat in Thomond Park.

John Hodnett, a dog of war fit for this occasion, replaces the suspended Jack O’Donoghue, while the bench has the experience and physicality this occasion will demand with the return of Conor Murray, the Scotland-bound Ben Healy and former All Blacks centre Malakai Fekitoa, surprisingly chosen ahead of Keith Earls.

Munster don’t look like the 14-point underdogs. The Stade Ernest Wallon is not one of France’s most imposing cauldrons, least of all on a Sunday afternoon. Whatever about a famous win, they will have a go and will rattle the Toulouse cage.

TOULOUSE: Melvyn Jaminet; Juan Cruz Mallía, Pierre-Louis Barassi, Pita Ahki, Dimitri Delibes; Romain Ntamack, Antoine Dupont (capt); Cyril Baille, Julien Marchand, Dorian Aldegheri; Richie Arnold, Emmanuel Meafou; Anthony Jelonch, Jack Willis, Alexandre Roumat.

Replacements: Guillaume Cramont, Rodrigue Neti, David Ainu’u, Thibaud Flament, Josh Brennan, Francois Cros, Ange Capuozzo, Arthur Retiere.

MUNSTER: Mike Haley; Calvin Nash, Antoine Frisch, Jack Crowley, Shane Daly; Joey Carbery, Craig Casey; Dave Kilcoyne, Niall Scannell, John Ryan; Jean Kleyn, Tadhg Beirne; Peter O’Mahony (capt), John Hodnett, Gavin Coombes.

Replacements: Diarmuid Barron, Josh Wycherley, Roman Salanoa, Jack O’Sullivan, Alex Kendellen, Conor Murray, Ben Healy, Malakai Fekitoa.

Referee: Karl Dickson (England)

Head to head: Played nine, Toulouse five wins, Munster four wins.

Betting (Paddy Power): 1-12 Toulouse, 33-1 Draw, 7-1 Munster. Handicap odds: (Munster +14 pts) 10-11 Toulouse, 19-1 Draw, 10-11 Munster.

Forecast: Toulouse to win.