GAA: FOOTBALL ANALYST:Kildare are ready to end the Ulster champions' run while Kerry, Cork and Tyrone can justify their favourites' tag

THE FOOTBALL championship really starts this weekend. I can’t see a repeat of last year’s All-Ireland quarter-finals, however, when all four provincial champions were dismissed.

Only Ulster winners Donegal look like being beaten. But not without a fight.

Kildare versus Donegal promises to be the closest contest of the weekend. It is an intriguing match up because both teams play with such similar styles. The main difference is how Jim McGuinness has set up up the Donegal defence. Their policy of containment is more pronounced than any other team in the country.

They will see their main duty as stopping Kildare from building any momentum out the field. This cynical approach has become a notable trait of our game and I expect a good example of it to be showcased this evening. A lot will depend on David Coldrick’s refereeing of what I expect will be a rash of fouling around the middle third of the pitch.

Donegal’s best chance of progress is if they make this a low-scoring affair. In Colm McFadden and Michael Murphy, presuming both are positioned close to goal, they have the best attacking partnership in the country right now. They are also ably assisted by young Paddy McBrearty. Kildare will seek to counter the impact of this trio through Mick Foley – who I consider to be the best full back in Ireland right now. Foley against Murphy, or how well Foley contains Murphy, will have a huge bearing on tonight’s result.

I think the difference will be Kieran McGeeney. This is his fourth year in Kildare and they have fully embraced his footballing philosophy. It is based on work ethic and an insatiable enthusiasm to support the ball carrier. There are no inhibitions placed on defenders getting forward to support the attack. It has certainly contributed to the high wide tally but they have become more clinical of late. That seems down to the combination struck up between James Kavanagh and Tomás O’Connor.

On that premise, I think the Lilywhites will be too quick and too relentless for Donegal.

McGuinness may have to release Karl Lacey and Kevin Cassidy from their wing back roles to stand a chance. I can’t see even that being enough though. Kildare are capable of at least 15 points, they are too developed as a group and they have banked several important days in Croke Park already.

And GAA headquarters is a place that makes Tyrone a very different proposition. The best way to deny Mickey Harte’s men an All-Ireland is to deny them a trip to Dublin. The place just suits their running game and the quality of their finishing.

They have also come close to perfecting the ability of ensuring no defender ever gets isolated in a one-on-one situation – another huge bonus in Croke Park. Harte has also proved very astute in recent weeks by introducing young players like Peter Harte, Mark Donnelly and Kyle Coney to the forwards. They have added real pace, which is the Tyrone way, and scoring power to an ageing team. I also can’t help noticing Seán Cavanagh’s return to form in midfield.

Roscommon are a progressive football team but this seems like a bridge too far – especially if full forward Senan Kilbride has not recovered fully from injury.

If I was to pick out a weakness in Tyrone’s make-up, it is the lack of pace through the centre of their defence.

Kerry will beat Limerick tomorrow but it will be nothing like the emphatic nature of their victory at the Gaelic Grounds in June. Limerick learned a valuable lesson in that match; if there is not constant pressure put on every Kerry player, all over the field, they will get clean ball into those forwards.

They must run hard at the Kerry defence. Stephen Kelly is well capable of this while Ian Ryan and Ger Collins can score another few goals. Jack O’Connor is leaving nothing to chance after last year’s defeat to Down at this stage and he must be keen to get Paul Galvin and Tomás Ó Sé up to match fitness – with one eye on the road ahead.

Still, I feel Darran O’Sullivan is wasted at corner forward. Darran has been the best Kerry forward this season because he has been allowed terrorise defenders when running from the half forward line. The havoc he caused in the Cork defence was best seen by his tremendous goal. Kieran O’Leary is unlucky but at least there is a genuine scrap for places in the panel. It will be close tomorrow but Jack and the management will have them steeled to atone for last year.

Mayo have won Connacht but due to their record in Croke Park they are universally expected to capitulate tomorrow. Such a lack of expectancy can be very liberating on a team’s psyche. I expect a relaxed performance from them that should trouble Cork.

Nicholas Murphy has been tried at full forward during the league and while Conor Counihan has had this dramatic switch forced upon him by Daniel Goulding’s injury, it may be done with an eye on hurting the Kerry full back line. The neighbours seem destined to meet again.

Not that it is Cork’s style to fire the ball in from deep, although Donncha O’Connor might profit from it. O’Connor is in fine form anyway and so is Fintan Goold. Long seen as the seventh Cork forward, injuries have given Goold the opportunity to show he is close to being the complete attacking forward.

Mayo lack pace around midfield, The O’Shea brothers will struggle to stay with Aidan Walsh and Cork’s best player of late, Alan O’Connor. I expect to see Ronan McGarrity before half-time. The porous nature of Cork’s defence in the Munster final has been addressed by Eoin Cotter and particularly Eoin Cadogan. So, unlike last year, no surprises this weekend.