IRISH DERBY PREVIEW:LIKE HAMLETwithout the Prince, tomorrow's Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby will ring very hollow indeed if Sea The Stars isn't in the line-up.
But hopes that the superstar colt will eventually get a green light to run in Ireland’s premier classic looked to be fading last night.
Trainer John Oxx had initially indicated it would be tomorrow morning before a final call is made about Sea The Stars’ participation after a week of uncertainty on the back of watering and uncertain weather. However, after further rain at the Curragh he conceded last evening: “We will see what the morning brings, and if the ground is gone beyond recall for Sea The Stars then a decision may be brought forward to tomorrow (Saturday).”
The latest blow to the Sea The Stars team came after 12mm of overnight rain was almost double what was anticipated. On top of a week of watering, it turned the going on the round course to “good” and “good to yielding” on the straight track.
But more rain again later yesterday turned the ground officially “soft” for last night’s action at the track. Oxx has consistently maintained he won’t run the brilliant Newmarket 2,000 Guineas-Epsom Derby hero on ground he considers too soft, and insists he wouldn’t have let Sea The Stars run if the €1.5 million race had gone off yesterday.
“They got more rain than forecast, and if the Derby was today he wouldn’t be running,” the trainer said earlier. “We could have done without the rain that has followed the 12mm overnight. Everything is in the balance.”
That that should be the case just hours before the €1.5 million centrepiece of the Irish racing year is a public relations nightmare for the Curragh and will reopen once again a debate about the pros and cons of watering tracks. It could also deprive Irish racing fans of a rare opportunity to see Sea The Stars running in this country. Missing tomorrow would look to leave just Leopardstown’s Champion Stakes as a potential date to see him in action on home soil.
On the back of this uncertainty, bookmaker reaction yesterday was to push Sea the Stars out to odds against after he traded as low as 2 to 5 during the week.
Curragh manager Paul Hensey remains hopeful Europe’s outstanding three-year-old so far this season will make the line-up against 12 other starters, including a seven-strong challenge from Aidan O’Brien’s Ballydoyle yard.
“The forecast for the weekend is for dry, warm weather, and while I would be reluctant to commit to anything about the weather, if the forecast is correct I would hope we will be calling the ground in the straight good by Sunday.”
If Sea The Stars does run, it’s suspected he will be subjected to a much more searching stamina test than he was when he won at Epsom three weeks ago. Another large O’Brien team seemed to get their tactics mixed up at Epsom and the result was the horse with the most pace in the race always looked in complete control.
Fame And Glory finished runner-up at Epsom and he is Johnny Murtagh’s choice of the Ballydoyle seven now. It looks a good call as, even though Masterofthehorse came from further back than anything else, he has struggled in the past to run well back-to-back.
Gan Amhras is something of an unknown quantity and reportedly failed to act around Epsom’s unique gradients. On his Newmarket Guineas third, the Jim Bolger runner is a major player, even though making excuses for horses beaten around Epsom can be an expensive exercise.
If Sea The Stars doesn’t start, it will be a major disappointment, but if he does there will be plenty willing to bet he will be vulnerable to a frantic gallop around the Curragh. One positive is that all this uncertainty could end up producing an SP about an exceptional horse which, in hindsight, will look like generosity itself. However, at a gloomy Curragh last night, the increasingly smart play looked like being Fame And Glory.
O’Brien is chasing a seventh Derby success, but his record in the Group Two Netjets Railway Stakes is even more remarkable.
Star names like George Washington, Rock Of Gibraltar and Mastercraftsman have contributed to a tally of nine wins in 10 years, and Alfred Nobel can continue the hot streak.
The Group Three Sapphire Stakes looks a first-rate chance for Captain Gerrard, who was running on noticeably well when fourth to Scenic Blast in the Kings Stand at Royal Ascot.