ANALYSIS:The Lions can punish the big mistakes Peter de Villers has made in his team selection

SO THE Burger is back, God help us all! Ironically Peter de Villiers’ has once again offered hope to the Lions. Burger’s calibre is undisputed but he will not offer the Springboks what’s required. Leaving Heinrich Brussow out is a mistake. The pace of the Lions’ ball grew steadily following his substitution last week. The Lions have struggled in seven games to master the breakdown so why not make it eight out of eight?

When the Springboks were firing in that opening half, they were committing a maximum of two to each breakdown and Brussow was generally one of them. Peter de Villiers obviously doesn’t understand the value of driving home the advantage.

Of last Saturday’s starting 15 players, only three Lions would make the Springboks side. The Lions’ centres would take two of the three slots. Brian O’Driscoll and Jamie Roberts were so far ahead of Jean de Villiers and particularly Adi Jacobs that changes were a must. Once again coach de Villiers has offered hope.

There’s certainly an argument for the RWC 2007 starting outside centre Jaque Fourie. Clearly both Jacobs and de Villiers have played all last season together and of course it was their first live start of the season but they remained out of tune to each other. However, that’s not where it ends for the Springboks.

Announcing the Test side in advance has afforded Ian McGeechan a real chance to bring a canon to the gunfight. Along with his bruising physique, Simon Shaw is the form secondrow in the group and will contribute enormously for 40 minutes.

Although Tom Croft finished two cracking tries last Saturday he should not be playing today. Unfortunately he’s not the enforcer that’s required.

This brings us right back to the backrow. Balance is key, but an enforcer is even more so. I’ve never been a massive fan of Joe Worsley but he’s big and he loves to tackle. He could have been given a man-marking job on Burger and more importantly Pierre Spies who will be much more prominent today. He neutered Jamie Roberts so well in the Six Nations this year.

Look at Croft’s defensive effort for John Smit’s try. Would Stephen Ferris have been beaten without a fight? David Wallace had a big game last week and still commands the best opportunity to break the line.

Along with Jamie Heaslip, Wallace will have big performances built on the parity with the set-piece.

I expect Burger to provide a roving role in defence. But at this level his arrival into the middle of the Springbok defensive line between de Villiers and Jacobs will cause more confusion than it may solve. He may therefore be employed to shore up the gap between the last forward and Ruan Pienaar at outhalf. And on a straight-up tackle there’s no one I’d least like to meet.

His team-mates will expect a big defensive performance from him so a deft pair of hands by the Lions’ ball-carrier will unlock the space behind Burger. This can be achieved by sending the sacrificial lamb up his channel and have Wallace arriving at full pace to Burger’s blindside.

Naturally the Springboks will improve 20 per cent on last Saturday but I expect the Lions will be 50 per cent improved. Does that make me confident regarding today’s Test? Well I suppose it does. Massive consolation can be drawn from last week. The obvious line-breaks and potency of the centres not to mention the try-scoring chances that went abegging.

The well-aired scrum performance and Phil Vickery’s air time last week is immediately fixable. In October 2000 the Northampton Saints and Springbok prop Gary Pagel destroyed our Leinster scrum. Six days later, with lessons learned under Roly Meates, the Leinster scrum had no difficulty matching Pagel. Major obvious flaws in the set-piece can be fixed. A week’s focus by all eight will numb the “Beast’s” advantage.

Remember that in his previous 10 international games he did not dominate like last Saturday. Nor did he gain such an advantage during the Super 14.

So if the scrum is somewhat under control then how will the Lions stop the rolling maul? It’s not as easy with the lineout as the permutations are far greater. To add to the strain, three changes to the pack, especially at hooker, will prove troublesome. Matthew Rees is fallible out of touch so expect lineout losses. But it’s the Springbok maul that must be stopped. Regardless, they will not gain 50 metres today but the Lions’ pack need to gain mental superiority early by setting the defensive tone at the maul, which will stun the crowd.

So how will it happen?

Although he was only in South Africa four days by the Emerging Springboks fixture, John Hayes made his mark very quickly. Hayes’s value came immediately to the fore with the very first Emerging Springboks lineout. The ball arrived at four and Hayes simply stood across the line, all 6ft 4ins and well over 19 stone stopped the formation of a Springbok maul dead and the threat was over.

The lesson is clear. The Lions must commit themselves to maximum destruction in the nano-second when Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha arrive back on to the ground. Clearly the Springbok pack are a tight bunch so the Lions must work low and quickly. Watch Shaw at the front. The most destructive person in the defensive lineout has always been the blindside flanker at five in the lineout. Think of Alan Quinlan or Trevor Brennan and the obvious destruction. Hence further concern for Tom Croft’s inclusion.

Whether the famed Shaun Edwards’ defence continues to neuter the Springboks’ attacking ambitions remains to be seen but I expect cup-winning rugby from the South Africans. Once again Pienaar will pull the strings and must be pressurised by disrupting Fourie du Preez off the lineout, at the base of the scrum and crucially by counter-rucking every breakdown. Pienaar’s composure must be tested with every passing minute which starts with du Preez and finishes with denying him kicks at goal.

We’ve all enjoyed this season’s journey and it simply cant end today. These players have given us so much it would be far too cruel for it not to be extended by one more week. I really believe the Lions have a great chance today. For the Lions to win it would be a monumental achievement with so many new combinations thrown together.