Odds stacked against Marco Penge as he looks to deny Rory McIlroy in Dubai

McIlroy is looking to win a fourth-straight Order of Merit title to cap a remarkable year

Marco Penge and Rory McIlroy shake hands after playing together in the first round of the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship at Yas Links Golf Course. Photograph: Andrew Redington/Getty Images
Marco Penge and Rory McIlroy shake hands after playing together in the first round of the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship at Yas Links Golf Course. Photograph: Andrew Redington/Getty Images

As if the odds weren’t already stacked against him in his pursuit of Rory McIlroy, the last thing Marco Penge needed was a bout of illness. But that is what came the way of the 27-year-old English player for the past few days, confined to bed and in need of medical help so that he will be as fit as he can be come the start of the DP World Championship in Dubai on Thursday morning.

Nobody needs to tell Penge of the chasm in experience between a player enjoying a breakthrough season and one who has completed golf’s Grand Slam on Majors this year.

Indeed, a photo of a teenaged Penge cheering on McIlroy – and looking for an autograph – a decade or so ago went viral during the week. It also demonstrates how far Penge has progressed in his own career, having graduated off the HotelPlanner Tour (formerly the Challenge Tour) to win three times so far this season (in China, Denmark and Spain) in moving to 29th in the official world rankings.

Still, McIlroy is McIlroy. And Penge, who lies 767 points behind McIlroy in the Race to Dubai standings (with 2,000 on offer in the Tour Championship to the winner), and paired together for the first round, is well aware of the challenge he faces.

“[Rory] has more experience in me in every area of the game and on every stage in golf, but I’m just approaching the week, watching Rory play golf, making the most of that experience. Learning from him like I did last week in the first two rounds [in Abu Dhabi]. Yeah, he’s got more experience than me, and he’s world number two right now,” said Penge, before adding, with a laugh, “I’ll be just be in his shadow, I suppose and trying to follow him around the golf course.”

Penge, effectively, needs to win to take matters into his own hands.

“I’m aware that I need to win this tournament to win The Race to Dubai,” said Penge, who is making his debut in the tournament. “When you’re in a more pressurised situation, it’s obviously easy to shy away from it, and you kind of feel like it’s harder. It doesn’t scare me any more, I’ve learned how to deal with it.”

Of his career progression, Penge expanded: “I think working your way up through the tour is probably the best thing for a player. It’s like any job, you kind of work your way up if that’s what you want to do and don’t go straight to the Tour.

“The Challenge Tour was a great learning experience for me, and I had two years on there. Then winning the Challenge Tour, getting out on the DP World Tour, playing with the best players in Europe is a new experience. Now this year, I’ve got more experience, more maturity, kind of knowing how good I need to be to compete out here. So I think as a stepping stone, it’s always amazing.”

While Penge is making his debut on The Earth course, McIlroy is an old hand. Not alone is he the defending champion but a three-time winner on the Greg Norman-designed layout in the desert along, with a further eight top-10s in 14 appearances.

McIlroy is looking to claim a seventh career Harry Vardon Trophy for topping the order of merit and is seeking a fourth straight. Penge has it all to do to stop him.

Rory McIlroy poses with the DP World Tour Championship trophy and the Race to Dubai trophy on the 18th green whilst gesturing 'six' for his sixth Race to Dubai title in Dubai last year. Photograph: Richard Heathcote/Getty Images
Rory McIlroy poses with the DP World Tour Championship trophy and the Race to Dubai trophy on the 18th green whilst gesturing 'six' for his sixth Race to Dubai title in Dubai last year. Photograph: Richard Heathcote/Getty Images

The Lowdown – DP World Tour Championship

Purse: €8.6 million (€2.6 million to the winner).

Where: Dubai, UAE.

The course: The Earth Course – 7,675 yards, par 72 – is a Greg Norman design that manages to incorporate lush fairways and copious water hazards on what was previously a desert landscape. The Great White Shark once described the last stretch of four finishing holes as “the most challenging mile in golf” which could be construed as hyperbole. Yet, it has proven a worthy and often testing venue for the end of the European Tour season, featuring risk/reward par-5s coming home (the 14th and 18th, both measuring over 600 yards). Players have observed this week that the rough is not as thick compared to last year when Rory McIlroy won with a score of 15 under par. Expect a higher winning score this time.

The field: McIlroy is the headline act as the Masters champion goes in search of a seventh Harry Vardon Trophy for topping the season-long order of merit. The Northern Irishman has a 767 points lead over Marco Penge, his nearest challenger, and 1,721 points advantage over Tyrrell Hatton, the only two men with a mathematical chance of overtaking McIlroy.

In looking to make it four straight order of merit wins, McIlroy has destiny in his own hands. But there are a number of permutations still at play.

  • For Penge to overtake him and win the Harry Vardon Trophy, the Englishman would need to win the tournament and for McIlroy to finish worse than second
  • Or to finish solo second and for McIlroy to finish worse than fourth alone
  • Or to finish tied-second with one other and for McIlroy to finish worse than eighth with two others
  • Or, in the final permutation, to finish tied-second with two others and for McIlroy to finish worse than 24th alone.
  • For Hatton to leapfrog his way to the top of the standings, he would need to win with McIlroy finishing worse than tied-8th with one other, as well as Penge finishing worse than tied-2nd.

Quote-Unquote: “I feel like the day my son was born, I automatically matured as a person. Just the responsibility of myself and my wife, it was all of a sudden about my son and not really about me. I feel like I’ve proved myself a lot under pressure in big moments that I can do it and [it] obviously started with keeping my card [last year] ... I feel like I’ve kind of dealt with every situation as well as I possibly could over the last year or so, and if I fail this week, that’s fine because I’ve been so successful over the last year. There’s a lot of good things to look back on.” – Marco Penge, who narrowly retained his card last year, on a breakout season (which has included three wins) in assuming the role of chief pursuer to McIlroy headed into the season-ending DP World Tour Championship.

Irish in the field: Shane Lowry – only playing on a special exemption as a current Ryder Cup player – is paired with Ludvig Aberg, who also received the special invite (off the 1st at 4.15am Irish time); Tom McKibbin is paired with Jorge Campillo (4.45am Irish time), while Rory McIlroy is in the final pairing alongside Marco Penge (8.40am Irish time).

Betting: Rory McIlroy – a three-time winner on The Earth course – deservedly heads the market at 11-4 coming in on the back of a closing 62 for third place in last week’s Abu Dhabi Championship with Dubai resident Tommy Fleetwood rated 9-2 and another European Ryder Cupper in Bob MacIntrye a 7-1 shot. In terms of each-way value, the in-form Daniel Hillier is on offer at 40-1, while Laurie Canter is worth a look at 55s.

On TV: Live on Sky Sports from 7am.

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Philip Reid

Philip Reid

Philip Reid is Golf Correspondent of The Irish Times