Rugby World Cup: Grateful just to be here after missing out four years ago, Ireland now face up to the point of no return at the 2003 World Cup. Quarter-final time. Their mission? To overcome France and boldly go where no Irish team has gone before. Gerry Thornley in Melbourne writes
Increasingly for the last four years, everything has been building up to this point. It is an exceptional group of Irish players, and probably no Irish sporting team has ever been better prepared or better organised for such a grand, global challenge.
Long gone is the mystique surrounding French players and French teams. This vintage of Irish players is more used to beating them than losing to them, especially in the knockout stages of the European Cup. Five of the last six test meetings have only had a score in them. Ireland have won three of the last four.
As Eddie O'Sullivan has been repeating ad nauseam all week - quarter-final week has somehow seemed the longest on this Oz odyssey - what this proves is that when Irish teams get it right on the day, they can push France all the way and have every chance of beating them.
When they have an off day, and France are on fire, then they can get beaten 44-5, as happened when the French clinched the Grand Slam in Paris 18 months ago.
And much the same scenario applies here. For starters, Ireland need a quick start, now more than ever. You sense they need what O'Sullivan refers to as the game's first beach-head position (an attacking set piece) and better still if they translate that into points. Ireland will have the more noticeable and vocal support, and the quicker the crowd get into the game the better.
Now, more than ever, they can ill afford to start on the back foot and concede the first scores to the opposition, as happened against Argentina and, more pertinently, Australia, when Ireland went 11-3 down. O'Sullivan yesterday conceded as much.
"If you go two scores down to the French we all know what can happen next. Their shoulders go back, their heads go up and they'll start throwing double reverse passes behind their back."
In that context, there appear to be more confident noises emanating from the French camp - whether over-confident only time will tell.
"We are expecting to win," says Fabien Galthie almost matter-of-factly. "When you play a quarter-final you want just to win the match, nothing more."
However, Galthie was dutifully respectful when discussing what he is expecting from Ireland in the match: "They (Ireland) are a very good team, a complete team, better than they were before. They have very strong forwards and very good backs. They have no feeble points, no weak points. We know that it is going to be very hard but when you play a quarter-final it's difficult, when you play a semi-final it's more difficult. This is the World Cup."
That France enter this game with a bit of their old swagger can be attributed to their free-flowing form thus far. In keeping with previous World Cups, where they have won three of four quarter-finals in ultimately reaching two finals, again they won all their pool games.
They are refreshed, the nucleus of their side having only played two games, and have focused on Ireland for a fortnight. The fear amongst some Irish supporters now milling around Melbourne again after midweek treks to sunnier spots on the coast is that Ireland are comparatively battle weary.
"Battle weary or battle hardened?" retorts O'Sullivan, with some justification. "It's true that we have come through the toughest pool but I take the view that we are battle hardened more than battle weary."
Certainly, in another tight game - and knockout rugby is an altogether more tense affair than group games - Ireland are undoubtedly more hardened.
They are also superbly fit and well prepared, and one can expect a huge effort from them. However, the confidence that comes with having beaten France three times out of the last four is dimmed by the knowledge that Galthie missed the three defeats, but played in that Parisian romp. Such is his effect on those around him.
Furthermore, all but one of the French back line is changed from their defeat in the wind and rain of Dublin last March.
The super-smooth and seemingly ultra-confident Frederic Michalak may be a little green at this level, and looked a little flaky when put under pressure in France's one-point win over England in Marseilles in August, but there's no doubt his daring outhalf play, pace and distribution have given the French back line another dimension.
The return of the Kiwi-born Tony Marsh has had a similar effect on their defence. There just seemed no space to attack them when they put up the shutters against Scotland. And out wide, they undoubtedly have more pace than Ireland.
Ireland have scrambled well defensively but their defence has still looked comparatively more porous. The Irish back line has also looked relatively less potent, hardly surprising given the loss of some key attacking personnel. There is something comforting about Brian O'Driscoll's prolific record against French teams but one imagines that Marsh and co will be queueing up for him.
Hence, you suspect that for them to win here it is going to require a mammoth performance from the pack, and for Ronan O'Gara to have another near perfect game with his kicking out of hand and off the ground. After all, the Irish pack did subdue a French pack containing seven of the players it will face tomorrow when Ireland won 15-12 in Dublin last March.
That encounter underlined that this French back row is more of a front-foot combination than one adept at turning a game around, and with Paul O'Connell having emerged since, not to mention the return of Keith Wood, the Irish pack is an improved unit since then.
O'Connell has been outstanding in this World Cup thus far and statistically has made the most steals on opposition throws and taken the highest percentage of balls thrown to him. And that's not to mention his work around the park.
In comparison to France, Ireland's cutting edge has been seriously blunted by the loss of first Geordan Murphy and now Denis Hickie. It's hard not to think that Ireland don't have the playing resources to withstand such losses as ably as, say, France or any other of the big five could.
It could well be that France have been flattering to deceive, that under pressure Michalak and co could crack.
Yet all the evidence is that this too is a supremely fit, well prepared and disciplined French side, liberally sprinkled with warriors throughout its spine such as Raphael Ibanez, Fabien Pelous, Olivier Magne, Galthie and Marsh. In short, less inclined to implode in time-honoured, mercurial French fashion.
Ireland do have a fighting chance. They might well do it. There are enough straws in the wind to provide hope, but all in all, France must be the choice to progress to the semi-finals.
Head-to-heads: Played 77, France 44 wins, Ireland 28 wins, 5 draws.
World Cup meetings: 1995 quarter-finals - France 36 Ireland 12 (King's Park, Durban).
Match betting (Paddy Power): 1/4 France, 20/1 Draw, 11/4 Ireland.
Handicap odds: 10/11 Ireland (+11pts), 10/11 France (-11), 16/1 Draw.
