Euroscene: So then, what happened to the "levelling-out" theory regarding international football? After the final weekend of Euro 2004 qualifiers, play-offs excluded, it is very much a case of "round-up-the-usual-suspects" when it comes to an assessment of the 10 countries who have qualified for Portugal next summer. Paddy Agnew reports

With the exception of Greece, highlighted in this column last week, and Switzerland, next summer's finalists read like a European Championship roll of honour. Of the other eight qualified, the Czech Republic, Denmark France, Germany and Italy are all previous European champions, whilst the remaining trio of Bulgaria, England and Sweden are hardly newcomers to a major finals tournament.

Even at this early stage, it is tempting to conclude that the four sides which fought out the Euro 2000 semi-finals three years ago, namely France, Italy, Portugal and The Netherlands (with all due respect to the latter's play-off opponents, Scotland) could again figure in the final shakedown at next summer's finals.

At various stages over the last 15 months, we were advised to stand by for a "major upset" in the qualifiers. First, it was little Wales who were going to turn over Italy, in the wake of a momentous 2-1 win over the Italians in Cardiff last October.

Then, it was even smaller Bosnia who were going to see off Denmark, again in the wake of an equally impressive 2-0 defeat of the Danes in Copenhagen.

Even tiny Iceland, a minnow amongst minnows, were tipped by some to be yet another giant killer, especially after the Icelanders had the cheek to hold the most successful European nation of all, Germany, to a recent 0-0 draw.

Turkey, admittedly no minnow, were also tipped by many to see off yet another European power-house in the shape of England.

In the end, though, what did we get? Greece and Switzerland apart, we got a dream run for those who back the form horses. Denmark, England, Germany and Italy all came good, even if they had to wait until last Saturday to wrap up the business. Add to those, another formidable quartet of ultra-comfortable qualifiers in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, France and Sweden, and you have to conclude these are as tough times as any in the past for Europe's little nations (Ireland included).

At this point, it might well be objected that, if the form book has held up so well, how come traditional European powers such as Russia, Spain and The Netherlands have ended up in the play-offs. Here, too, there is no mystery.

Given that the Dutch and the Czechs were drawn in the same group, it was always obvious the runner-up was going to be a top nation. As for Russia and Spain, as already indicated, they have come from the only "surprise" groups in the tournament.

In the end, though, it is not difficult to forsee even the play-offs running true to form with Croatia, Russia, Spain, The Netherlands and Turkey (no minnows there) joining the other 11 finalists (host country Portugal included). If those five come through, that will represent the iceing on the cake for a tournament where all the right ingredients seem to be falling into place.

For a start, we have a passionate, football-loving home country inspired by the prospect of hosting a major tournament for the first time and represented by one of Europe's strongest teams. For a second, nearly all the best teams will be there since, at this point, Belgium, Romania and Serbia are arguably the only "pedigree" teams definitively eliminated.

For a third, of course, we have a player line-up that features such as Frenchman Zinedine Zidane, Englishman David Beckham, German Michael Ballack, Czech Pavel Nedved, Italian Francesco Totti, Portugal's Figo and Swede Zlatan Ibrahmovic (not to mention Spaniard Raul and Dutchman Ruud van Nistelrooy if Spain and The Netherlands come through) - in other words, just about all the greatest talents in the contemporary game, barring the odd Brazilian and Argentinian.

With 242 days to go to kick-off, Euro 2004 is looking good.