CHARLIE McCreevy must have been privately calculating the odds on himself landing the plum job of Minister for Finance in the new Government. But he has always been the firm favourite. While the odds on Brian Cowen shortened considerably after the election, Mr McCreevy would have been justified in maintaining that his Opposition role as finance spokesman would translate into the Minister's job after the election.

Mr McCreevy, an accountant and keen horse-racing punter, sees himself on the right of the Fianna Fail party and has been extremely vocal in his criticism of the previous Government's spending record.

However, according to the outgoing Minister, Mr Quinn, the danger of excessive tax cuts under the new administration could undermine the economy. He has already appealed to his successor to be moderate in his fiscal policy.

The challenge for Mr McCreevy will be to find the key to controlling spending to free enough funds to meet tax cutting commitments. And if there is any sign of the economy over-heating, he may have to risk unpopularity with his colleagues by telling them to trim their Budgetary sails for fear of fuelling inflation.

Mr McCreevy will know that he must quickly put his mark on the job, with little time to waste if the new Government is to deliver its promises in the November Budget. He inherits an enviable legacy from the outgoing Minister, Mr Quinn. Indeed, it is no exaggeration to say that he takes over the strongest financial position of any incoming Minister for Finance in recent times.

Growth is again exceeding all expectations and there is no sign of inflationary pressures. Such is the buoyancy of tax revenue that it looks as if the Government may not have to borrow at all this year as the current budget surplus may offset the need for any borrowing for capital purposes.

But Mr McCreevy will still have to find a way to rein in spending quickly if he is to afford the promised reductions in tax. The man who implemented the "dirty dozen" social welfare cuts and was never slow to preach the virtues of fiscal rectitude will be seen as a safe pair of hands in keeping a check on the public finances.

In terms of the Budget, the key task he will encounter will be the negotiation of new EU funds, which is likely to prove trickier than in the past.

But no Minister has found it easy to control current spending. And with finances so buoyant, the incoming Minister will know that whatever their pre-electoral rhetoric, once his party colleagues assume the trappings of Ministerial office they will all be looking for more money for their own departments.

The Kildare TD is a popular choice at Merrion Street, where he is likely to be welcomed by the permanent government of senior civil servants.

He is charming yet stubborn and is not averse to a bit of intrigue. His political message has been the same for over 20 years, cut spending, reduce taxes and pay off the national debt. In fact it was precisely those views that led to him being expelled from the Fianna Fail parliamentary party in 1982, when his comments were seen as an attack on the then leader Charles Haughey.

That criticism kept him out of the cabinet for the first 15 years of his political career. However, the ascent in 1992 to the leadership of Albert Reynolds - for whom he had campaigned hard - meant that Mr McCreevy landed the job of Minister for Social Welfare. When Fianna Fail went into coalition with Labour, McCreevy moved to Tourism and Trade. He toyed with the notion of joining the Progressive Democrats in 1986, but then dismissed the idea.

There may be some trepidation at the Department at the prospect of welcoming an accountant. "The last thing the Department of Finance wants is an accountant," one insider quipped. "He'll be telling us what to do."

However most will welcome the prospect of a Minister seen as smart and very good with numbers. The fact that he is easy to get along with is an added bonus. One worry the Department has is that Mr McCreevy is inclined to call a spade a spade. In many ways, the mandarins would prefer a minister who would be slightly less forthright.

Mr McCreevy's rhetoric is likely to go down well with many at the Department of Finance. The Department is said to be pleased at his radio interview last Sunday when he repeated that Fianna Fail's 4 per cent spending target will be rigidly adhered to. He insisted that this target is inviolable. He warns that when the economy eventually slows down it will be "nearly impossible" to cut spending. He is insistent that the big spending/high borrowing of the 1970s and 1980s should not be repeated.

The Exchequer Borrowing Requirement, under Mr McCreevy's stewardship is likely to be set at zero - provided the economy remains buoyant. However, as yet there is no hint of where the spending restraint will come from.

In a previous incarnation the famous list of social welfare spending cuts included ending disability and dental benefit of some unemployed people and cutting assistance on electric and gas bills, as well as ending maternity benefit for unemployed women.

This time around it is unclear how the new administration will rein back on spending. Health and education are unlikely to be targeted, but Mr McCreevy has been heard to talk about countering powerful vested interests among the teachers

The other great challenge facing the Minister will be the transition to monetary union. Mr McCreevy can be expected to toe Fianna Fail's line on monetary union the party is in favour of Ireland joining with or without Britain. In the short-term he may face some turbulence on the markets as investors bet on who will join the single currency club and at what rates currencies will be locked.

Looking into next year, Mr McCreevy - will be the key figure representing Ireland in crucial talks on the final shape of monetary union. The project is due to start on January 1st, 1999, although some tense talking is likely in the meantime.

Before the election, a number of senior Fianna Fail party figures sounded a somewhat sceptical tone on the project. Ray MacSharry, in particular, argued that it would be better to postpone the whole project for a year than to go ahead with a weakened currency. However party leader Bertie Ahern insisted he believes the project will go ahead on time.

Mr McCreevy himself wants strict rules set down to govern the relationship between those on the inside of the club and those not in the new exchange rate mechanism. He has also expressed scepticism about the terms of the stability pact - the rules governing financial performance inside the euro zone. Mr McCreevy is also likely to side with the British Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown at EU level. Both have a belief in deregulating and in flexible markets. Mr McCreevy frequently points out that Europe is the only economic bloc which is actually increasing regulation.

However the new Minister can hope to deliver a generous first budget and still stay on track for qualification for the single currency. One racing certainty is that Mr McCreevy's first budget promises to be a boon for middle and higher income workers.

The top rate of income tax and the basic rate will both be reduced. There will also be cash spent on widening the standard rate band. Personal allowances may rise, but less than under the previous administrations. Corporation tax will also be reduced and the Government is also committed to a range of goodies, including new allowances aimed at families with children. On Mr McCreevy's shoulders will fall the responsibility of delivering this package, while all the time keeping an eye to the changes monetary union will bring. After all, if the Government runs its full five years, the pound will no longer be in circulation when Mr McCreevy leaves office.