Entering the last round of the National Football League, 26 of 32 teams have something to play for. The competition might not be perfect, but it’s certainly competitive.
Before we get ourselves in a muddle, here’s a reminder of the metrics used to separate sides that finish level on points.
Where two teams finish on the same points, their head-to-head record will be the determining factor. But where three or more teams finish level on points, scoring difference will be used. In the unlikely event that isn’t enough to separate them, it then goes to highest total scores for, and then highest total goals for.
Division 1
The race for a league final spot is a four-team sprint to the line between Donegal (nine points), Kerry (nine), Mayo (eight) and Roscommon (eight) – although given an apparent lack of enthusiasm from some quarters, it might play out more as a reluctant jog to the tape than a frantic dash.
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Donegal have been leading the charge at the summit of the table for much of the campaign but when asked last weekend about progressing to the league final, manager Jim McGuinness said: “If we get there, we get there. We’re not that bothered. If we don’t get there, it gives us an extra week to prepare for the Down match.”
And when it was suggested to Kerry manager Jack O’Connor that the opportunity to retain the title by contesting the league final in Croke Park on March 29th was where the Kingdom would like to be, the Kerry boss said with a smile: “How sure are you about that? I’m not too sure.
“Look, the main priority for this league was obviously to not get into relegation bother and to blood players.”
Should either Kerry or Donegal fail to win their last game, a league final spot would possibly open up for either Mayo or Roscommon. Mayo lost last year’s decider to Kerry while Roscommon last played in a Division 1 decider in 1981. For Mark Dowd, it would be a notable achievement to guide Roscommon to a final in his first season at the helm.
The relegation pincers have already grabbed Monaghan (zero points), who are the only team in the division with nothing but pride to play for in the last round of games. They will be joined in Division 2 next year by either Dublin (four points), Armagh (four) or Galway (six). With Ger Brennan’s Dubs travelling to Salthill on Sunday, the outcome of that contest will be pivotal to the final standings. A draw would be enough for Galway to survive.
Last round of fixtures (all 3.30pm): Armagh v Kerry, Athletic Grounds (GAA+ & BBC iPlayer); Galway v Dublin, Pearse Stadium (TG4); Mayo v Roscommon, MacHale Park (Spórt TG4 YouTube); Monaghan v Donegal, St Tiernach’s Park (Spórt TG4 YouTube).
Division 2
Cork (10 points) and Meath (10) lead the way entering the last round of games, but Louth (eight) and Derry (eight) are also vying for one of the two promotion spots. The objective is simple for Cork (v Tyrone) and Meath (v Offaly) – draw or win and they will be promoted. But should they slip up, then it would allow the chasing pack to stake a claim for a top-two finish.
In terms of scoring difference, Derry (+42) have the strongest return ahead of Meath (+23), Louth (+18) and Cork (+2). But the head-to-head records vary – Cork beat both Meath and Louth but lost to Derry. Meath beat Louth and Derry but lost to Cork. Louth beat Derry but lost to Meath and Cork. Derry beat Cork but lost to Meath and Louth. Clear as mud, so.
Offaly (zero points) are already consigned to Division 3 for 2027, with Tyrone (five), Cavan (four) and Kildare (three) all scrambling to avoid joining them there. Malachy O’Rourke’s Tyrone could be relegated but realistically Kildare and Cavan are the teams most at risk of dropping down a division.
Tyrone played out a draw with Kildare in round two, so scoring difference will be used to separate those teams should they finish level – currently, Tyrone are on +8 to Kildare’s -20. Cavan are also on -20, so barring a shocker from Tyrone against Cork in Omagh, they should be okay.
That means everything is on the line for Kildare in their home game against Louth. A draw would not be enough for Brian Flanagan’s side as they lost to Cavan earlier in the campaign, so on the head-to-head record they’d finish below the Breffni men. Kildare must beat Louth to have any chance of surviving. For Dermot McCabe’s Cavan, a win in Derry would guarantee them Division 2 football next year.
Last round of fixtures (all 1.15pm): Derry v Cavan, Celtic Park (Spórt TG4 YouTube); Kildare v Louth, St Conleth’s Park (TG4); Offaly v Meath, O’Connor Park (Spórt TG4 YouTube); Tyrone v Cork, Healy Park (Spórt TG4 YouTube).
Division 3
Down (12 points) are the only team throughout the four divisions still boasting a 100 per cent winning record. With six wins from six, Conor Laverty’s side are already promoted to Division 2 for 2027.
The battle for second place has come down to a straight shootout between Westmeath (eight points) and Wexford (eight). John Hegarty’s Model County footballers have home advantage for the clash between the two sides, but Martin McHugh’s Westmeath have a slightly better scoring difference of six points, so a draw would be enough for the visitors.
Fermanagh (two points) are already relegated and one of Limerick (three ), Sligo (four) or Laois (five) will be joining them in Division 4 next season. Laois are the “safest” of that trio, not only because they have amassed five points but they also have a much healthier scoring difference of -3 compared to Sligo (-14) and, most importantly, Limerick (-28).
Limerick and Laois drew in the opening round, so the only way the O’Moore County could be relegated is if they were to suffer a heavy beating at the hands of Down, coupled with the Treaty County posting a huge winning tally over Fermanagh. Sligo would also need to take something from their game against Clare for Laois to slip below them. Limerick are most at risk as they lost to Sligo earlier in the campaign, so they would come up short on a head-to-head with the Yeats County.
Last round of fixtures (all 2pm): Down v Laois, Páirc Esler; Limerick v Fermanagh, Mick Neville Park, Rathkeale; Sligo v Clare, Markievicz Park; Wexford v Westmeath, Wexford Park (TG4, deferred).
Division 4
Seven teams are vying for the two promotion spots. Seven. Admittedly, some have stronger cases than others, but the fact all but one of the eight teams in the division remain in the chase entering the last round of games is remarkable. Waterford (zero points) are the odd ones out.
Just two points separate first and seventh. Carlow (eight points) and Wicklow (eight) lead the way, followed by London (seven) and Longford (seven). Then comes Antrim (six points), Tipperary (six) and Leitrim (six).
As scoring difference could be decisive, here are the respective tallies: Wicklow (+26), Carlow (+14), Antrim (+13), Longford (+2), Tipperary (0), London (-2), Leitrim (-3).
There is a web of head-to-head permutations as well, but essentially there are only two teams fully in control of their fate – Carlow and Wicklow. If Joe Murphy’s Carlow beat Leitrim they would be promoted, irrespective of results elsewhere. The same goes for Oisín McConville’s Wicklow against Longford. Should either or both sides fail to win, a five-strong chasing pack would suddenly be in the mix as teams try to snatch a promotion spot in the tightest of divisions. All told, it’s probable scoring difference and/or head-to-head records will ultimately play a role in painting the promotion picture come Sunday afternoon.
Last round of fixtures (all 1pm): Antrim v London, Cargin; Carlow v Leitrim, Dr Cullen Park; Longford v Wicklow, Pearse Park; Tipperary v Waterford, Semple Stadium.
