Over the course of 2024 about nine million ballots were cast in Ireland – a staggering figure calculated by the Electoral Commission, totting up every vote in two referendums, the local and European contests, the Limerick mayor’s race and the general election.
One thing is certain: there won’t be anything like that figure in 2025, but the year ahead promises no shortage of intrigue and challenge for the political classes as they look to digest a new reality brought about by the year of elections.
Government formation
Government formation talks with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were ongoing right up to Christmas. When the next coalition is eventually assembled, the ministerial chairs – probably some configuration of one Cabinet minister, a super junior (Minister of State attending Cabinet) and some junior ministries – are likely to make their way to Independent TDs as part of a government formation deal.
Noel Grealish, the Independent TD for Galway West, was first out of the blocks to signal his interest in a position, and was seen before Christmas as being in a shoot-out for a Cabinet seat with Marian Harkin and Seán Canney – with Kevin Boxer Moran also in the running.
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The precise complexion of the government is, of course, a very important thing, but it is almost matched by the programme for government, the foundational document setting out what the government plans to do during its term.
During the lifetime of the last government, it was a vital roadmap which led to relative stability despite a range of significant shocks. Whether the next programme plays this role remains to be seen – but the document that is produced will tell us much about the animating principles of the incoming coalition – will there be moves for social reform, like the referendums promised (but not always delivered) in the last term?
What about a referendum on housing? How about climate and rural Ireland, investment in public transport versus things such as roads infrastructure? What will it say about Mercosur, the EU-Latin America trade deal, or the nitrates directive, and what government policies and moves will flow from that?
Will we see a space for social reforms such as right-to-die legislation, hate speech, abortion reform or decriminalisation of some drug possession?
Right now, it feels like the next government will be a cold house for these types of policies. What of the baubles that were dangled by Simon Harris in front of the electorate, like the acorn child savings scheme?
All the parties promised big moves on childcare – but reforming that sector is a thorny issue. Meanwhile, it is broadly known where the €13 billion of Apple tax money is going – but specific allocations for projects have to be made, probably not in the programme for government – but during the lifetime of the next coalition.
The Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael proposal to the electorate in the November general election was stability and ongoing investment; that gives the broad direction and goals, but much of the character of the next government remains to be defined.
Reform, Mercs and perks
Beyond the Independent ranks, there are jostling battalions of Fine Gaelers and Fianna Fáilers vying for promotion. Given several junior ministers and one Cabinet minister lost their seats, there are openings available. Fine Gael’s Jennifer Carroll MacNeill is among the names tipped for promotion, as is Mary Butler of Fianna Fáil, while Wexford’s James Browne of Fianna Fáil is in the running as well.
The expectation is that with Fianna Fáil holding the taoiseach’s position, the finance ministry will rotate to Fine Gael, while Minister for Higher Education Patrick O’Donovan may be on the move within Cabinet, with education a possibility.
From outside the ranks of current ministers, Fianna Fáil’s Niamh Smyth and Jim O’Callaghan could be on the move, while first-time TD John Cummins is a member of the Fine Gael government negotiation team, as is his fellow freshman John Paul O’Shea. Their presence on the team could lead to an immediate promotion to the ranks of junior ministers. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil manifestos outlined proposals for new departments – infrastructure and domestic affairs respectively, the latter organised under the Minister for Justice but with its own stand-alone department and secretary general. It’s unlikely both will be delivered.
The Opposition
Pre-Christmas, there were tentative talks between parties on the left about more intensive co-operation in opposition. This is all well and good, and there’s a strong logic underlying it. However, it’s not like there’s a rich history of harmonious coexistence on the left. The tribal loathing between these parties can rival anything summoned by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil when the political circumstances dictate.
Bitter division may be as likely as fruitful collaboration. Nonetheless, if the government formation talks shake out as expected, the Social Democrats and Labour will have to seize their chance to build from opposition, blooding a crop of new and talented TDs alongside their stalwarts.
For Sinn Féin, the challenge is different – it had an objectively disappointing election, no matter what twist you put on it, losing 117,000 first-preference votes. A strategic and tactical overhaul of some description beckons – most likely in the form of a front-bench overhaul, with little in the way of credible whispers about the leadership of Mary Lou McDonald, despite a torrid 2024 for the party.
The big question will be whether leading lights such as Pearse Doherty and Eoin Ó Broin are kept in their respective briefs of finance and housing – both are seen as cornerstones of Sinn Féin’s project, but visible changes may be the best way of communicating deeper ones.
There will also be, as ever, a place for Sinn Féin’s reckoning with the legacy of the Troubles in 2025, which may come if its former president Gerry Adams takes the stand in his libel case against the BBC. People Before Profit, meanwhile, will have to readjust to being in a technical group, which means they will have less agenda-setting power through the Dáíl and will have to grab opportunities as they arise.
There has been rapid growth on the conservative end of the spectrum, with Aontú and Independent Ireland finding success in 2024. While far-right candidates enjoyed limited success (and none in the Dáil elections), that stripe of politics was on the ballot paper as never before in 2024, and is unlikely to evaporate.
Trump 2.0, Ireland and Israel
There is a range of potential threats arising from the second Trump presidency, from global and European security to trade wars, but it is clear that Ireland faces much jeopardy and exposure across the next four years in a way that probably exceeds his first term.

That could be compounded by the Gaza war, with the Irish Government palpably nervous about the increasing emphasis the Israelis are placing on the Occupied Territories Bill (that would ban trade with illegal Israeli settlements) – and what attention that may garner in the United States.
While there was no noticeable blowback over the recognition of Palestinian statehood in 2024, the US and Israel are particularly sensitive to anything that looks like an endorsement of the Boycott, Divest and Sanctions movement – a link which outgoing Israeli ambassador to Ireland Dana Erlich specifically drew to the Occupied Territories Bill.
There could be a wicked cocktail driving a shift in sentiment towards Ireland in the foreign direct investment space – a combination of protectionism, tax reform and the government’s stance on Gaza priming a choppy year ahead for Irish industrial policy.
Presidential election
The electoral heights of 2024 may not be reached this year, but there is one big election coming in autumn: the race for the Áras as Michael D Higgins completes the final lap of a storied career in elected office.
Presidential elections are traditionally seen as second-order contests with a twist added in recent years of randomness and volatility. Think of the surge in support for Peter Casey following his remarks about Travellers in 2018, or the infamous RTÉ Frontline incident with Seán Gallagher involving a fake tweet.
Presidential elections in Ireland have become something of a blood sport – a high-profile contest with little material on the line when it comes to political power, but nonetheless they consume the news agenda and are generally combustible.

The main parties will have to pick candidates (or maybe not) while it may be an opportunity for a high-profile win for a smaller party looking to build, or indeed, rebuild if the Greens can muster the energy and funds required.
The spectre of former taoiseach Bertie Ahern stalks Fianna Fáil, who were roused when he was readmitted to the party, but would likely dread a campaign which would dredge up the ghost of tribunals past.
The highest office in the land is nonetheless a glittering prize – and, in the meantime, it’s unlikely that Michael D will keep the head down in his last few months in office.
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