Majority in Northern Ireland favours rejoining EU, poll finds

A clear majority of voters in Northern Ireland are in favour of rejoining the European Union, with almost four in 10 saying that the prospect of EU membership makes them “more likely to support Irish unity”.

Northern voters favour EU membership by a 2-1 majority, (54 per cent to 27 per cent), with 19 per cent saying they don’t know.

Voters from a Catholic background overwhelmingly back EU membership (75 per cent to 10 per cent) but most Protestant-background voters who express a preference favour remaining outside the EU (43 per cent to 36 per cent, with 21 per cent saying they don’t know).

The prospect of EU membership would make 37 per cent of all voters in the North more likely to support Irish unity, with 48 per cent saying it would make no difference. Among Protestant-background voters, 15 per cent say EU membership would make them more likely to support Irish unity, with 10 per cent saying it would make them less likely to support unity, and two-thirds — 66 per cent — saying it would make no difference.

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Voters in the North are evenly split on the Northern Ireland protocol. But the most popular way forward is for a negotiated solution that would retain the agreement but make changes in order to ease its implementation, according to new research.

Voters in the Republic are overwhelmingly in favour of the protocol and say it should be implemented as agreed.

The research was carried out as part of the North and South series for The Irish Times and Arins, which is a joint project of the Royal Irish Academy and the University of Notre Dame in the US dedicated to analysing and researching Ireland North and South. It consisted of two opinion polls in Northern Ireland and the Republic on attitudes to a possible united Ireland and a series of focus groups in both jurisdictions.

Poll findings lay down a challenge to advocates of unity

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Both polls surveyed more than 1,000 people each in Northern Ireland and the Republic and the margin of error is estimated at plus or minus 3 per cent.

The division in Northern Ireland on the protocol is remarkably even. Just over a fifth of all voters (21 per cent) support it; 23 per cent neither support nor oppose it and 24 per cent oppose it. A slightly larger proportion of voters — 31 per cent — say they don’t know.

Asked which statement was closer to their views on the protocol, 31 per cent in the North agreed that “overall the protocol is good for the Northern Ireland economy because it gives Northern Ireland access to both the UK market and the EU market”.

A similar number, 34 per cent, agreed that “overall the protocol is bad for the Northern Ireland economy because it is now more difficult to import from Great Britain into Northern Ireland”. And 36 per cent said they didn’t know.