World View/Michael McCaughan: The economic and political future of Latin America will largely be determined by the outcome of power struggles currently under way in Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela.
The Colombian President, Alvaro Uribe, elected last year, is implementing a "democratic security" project which subordinates civilian rule to a sweeping counter-insurgency plan that relies on US support to neutralise its critics abroad.
Uribe has overseen the rapid militarisation of society with army troop numbers rising by 50 per cent and a network of one million informers putting the countryside on a war footing. Army majors have replaced civilian mayors, while an anti-terror statute gives soldiers the right to arrest and interrogate suspects and intercept communications at will.
Uribe's goal is to inflict a military defeat on left- wing insurgents by January 2005 to coincide with the launch of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), a US-sponsored trade pact extending from Alaska to Argentina.
In neighbouring Venezuela, President Hugo Chavez has embarked on an entirely different project, launching a "peaceful, democratic revolution" which gives citizens a remarkable level of control over public affairs.
Since his election in December 1998, Chavez has introduced new laws to transform economic structures, outraging Venezuela's traditional power brokers, the media, business and church leaders.
The displaced oligarchs attempted a coup in April 2002 and a crippling general strike last December, leaving the economy in tatters.
Chavez now relies heavily on the armed forces and the urban poor to defend his political project.
Brazilian President Luis Inacio "Lula" da Silva, elected last year, has attempted a third way by pursuing a consensus approach towards radical social reforms, so as to keep the country's conservative sectors on board. Lula has launched an agrarian reform programme and a zero hunger campaign, while cutting budgets to ensure fiscal rectitude, winning praise from his harshest critics.
However, while Chavez enjoys record oil revenues and Uribe relies on expanding US military aid, Lula requires economic growth rates of 3-4 per cent a year to fund his ambitious reform project, a target that appears unlikely to be achieved.
On the international stage Chavez has allied himself closely to the Cuban President, Fidel Castro, denounced globalisation as "a brutal nightmare" and harshly criticised US foreign policy in the post-September 11th era.
Chavez has criticised the FTAA, fearing that Latin- American economies will be swamped by their powerful northern neighbour.
Uribe has steered Colombia firmly into the US camp, offering troops for the war in Iraq despite massive opposition at home. The US has rewarded its loyal ally with the highest level of military aid after Israel and Egypt. In return, Colombia has vigorously backed the FTAA and entered talks with the US to secure a bilateral trade accord should the FTAA be delayed.
Lula once described the FTAA as the "economic annexation" of Latin America but has moderated his views since taking office, suggesting that prior regional integration would permit a softer landing inside the accord.
Latin-American nations adopted the "Washington consensus" in recent years, an economic recipe promoting reduced public expenditure, privatised state assets and increased foreign investment. The results have been disastrous with unemployment, crime and poverty spiralling out of control across the region.
A resurgence of anti- American feeling has inspired an upsurge in votes for centre-left candidates in Venezuela, Brazil, Bolivia, El Salvador, Ecuador, Argentina and Uruguay.
An alternative axis of power has emerged, sometimes called the "Bolivarian consensus" led by Chavez, who insists that domestic economic development must take precedence over international trade agreements.
Chavez is attempting to knit together an economic alliance which would negotiate entry into the FTAA on more favourable terms.
By the end of this year, Chavez and Lula hope to conclude an economic union between the Andean Community (CAN) and South America's common market (Mercosur), creating a counterbalance to US dominance in the hemisphere.
Colombia opposed the integration project as Uribe argued that Latin-American nations should focus on the FTAA and bow to the reality of US hegemony on the global stage.
Colombia and Venezuela's contrasting political regimes have led to diplomatic friction with mutual recriminations over alleged interference in internal affairs.
Uribe's government has accused Chavez of harbouring sympathy for left-wing FARC rebels who define themselves as "Bolivarian" and consider Chavez a brother in arms. Venezuelan officials fear that the escalating conflict in Colombia, which threatens to spill over the border into Venezuela, may provide a pretext for US intervention in both countries.
The US government has made no secret of its antipathy toward Chavez, angry at a recent rebuff in which the Venezuelan leader refused to transfer data on thousands of Arab citizens who settled decades ago on the tourist island of Margarita.
US power in the hemisphere remains unchallenged despite the withdrawal of the southern command bases from Panama in 1999. In the past five years, US bases have been consolidated in Colombia, Puerto Rico, Aruba, Ecuador, Costa Rica and Peru, alongside Cuba's own Guantanamo Bay.
US troops are engaged in permanent "exercises" in a dozen countries in the region, while gunboats patrol the seas and spy planes dominate the skies.
Chavez envisages a multi- polar world linking left-wing guerrillas, progressive social movements and sympathetic governments in Europe, Latin America and the Middle East.
However, the Chavez administration's plans for global resistance to US power may well be cut short as Venezuela's new constitution grants citizens the right to recall their president halfway through office.
Chavez has spent the past year battling for political survival and faces rising unemployment and poverty rates which have eaten into his support base.
Uribe is currently searching for ways to amend the Colombian constitution to prolong his rule by a further four years.
Meanwhile, Lula, a friend of Fidel Castro and a respected interlocutor in Washington, is shaping up as a mediating influence, globally recognised as a hard-working politician determined to stay the course.