The Government faces an onerous programme of European Union business over the next couple of years, in addition to its difficult domestic affairs agenda. The EU presidency from January to June next year may well have to complete negotiations on the constitutional treaty and will mark EU enlargement to 25 states in May
It will lead in to European Parliament elections in June and will have a heavy foreign and trade policy agenda. A referendum on the new treaty will be held, probably in 2005 or 2006.
The Government will need to feel secure, in terms of basic public support, as it tackles these issues. It can draw some comfort from the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll findings about attitudes to the EU as it does so; but ministers should be aware that they cannot take this for granted and that there are politically significant variations in levels of support for European integration among different sections of the voting public. Voters in Dublin are much more enthusiastic about the EU than those in Connaught/Ulster, urban voters are more supportive than farmers, men much more than women, and younger more than older people.
The poll asked whether Ireland "should do all it can to unite fully with the EU" as it prepares to assume the EU presidency next January, or "should do all it can to protect its independence from the EU". It finds 45 per cent in favour of the first proposition and 40 per cent for the second one, with 15 per cent not knowing or having no opinion. This is somewhat up on support for integration when compared to a question asked in October last year, just before the second referendum on the Nice Treaty.
As reported in the newspaper today, this follows a basically favourable pattern towards integration since 1996; the major exception was the period leading up to and after rejection of the Nice Treaty in the May 2001 referendum, when there were majorities in favour of protecting independence from the EU. Meanwhile the separate Eurobarometer poll shows Ireland's rate of approval for EU membership falling in the last few years, to below 70 per cent for the first time this spring.
Unless European issues are properly discussed and ventilated within the political system they will not get the public attention they deserve. There is plenty of opportunity to do this during coming months, and during the European Parliament elections.
If these are made into a vote on the constitutional treaty and EU enlargement rather than a series of national votes on domestic politics there is a good prospect of properly engaging the public.