The people of Northern Ireland go to the polls today and the result of the ballot will decide whether the Assembly and Executive can resume their work, or whether direct rule will continue from Westminster. It is such a stark choice that an outcome in favour of devolved government would appear to be inevitable. But the nature of society in Northern Ireland and divided unionist loyalties on the Belfast Agreement make the outcome anything but certain.
This newspaper has been a consistent advocate of the benefits of the Belfast Agreement, which was ratified by referendums on both sides of the border five years ago. For, in spite of the various political failures to implement its provisions, it offers solid hope of a way forward to an agreed and peaceful Ireland.
Significant progress has already been made. And society in Northern Ireland has changed for the better. A surge of inward investment has gone to create new jobs, while the level of paramilitary and sectarian violence has reduced sharply. At the same time, considerable advances have been made in the creation of a Police Service acceptable to both communities.
These are positive and progressive changes. And they can be built on, given political commitment and a successful election campaign for Mr David Trimble of the Ulster Unionist Party. Should Dr Paisley and the Democratic Unionist Party replace the UUP as the chief voice of unionism, however, the political outlook would be bleak. Dr Paisley has ruled out negotiations with Sinn Féin and he seeks to smash the Belfast Agreement. At the same time, Mr Mark Durkan and SDLP activists are working hard to protect the Agreement and to prevent Sinn Féin from supplanting them as the main nationalist party. They are urging a vote-transfer arrangement with the UUP in an attempt to deny the DUP vital seats and to strengthen the political middle ground.
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, will meet the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, on Friday to discuss the elections and to prioritise efforts to restore the Assembly and the Executive. Key elements in that regard will be IRA acts of completion and clarity on the issue of arms decommissioning before the UUP will agree to re-enter the Executive with Sinn Féin. If the outcome of the election creates political stalemate, however, the governments will consult with the various parties before engaging in a scheduled review of the Agreement. The governments are insistent that the four-year review, which is provided for within the Agreement, will not amount to a renegotiation. And they are pressing ahead with the establishment of a commission that will monitor paramilitary ceasefires.
These elections will not, in themselves, solve the problems of Northern Ireland. But they have the capacity to encourage - or to deny - early political progress. Any weakening of the middle ground will make it more difficult to implement the Belfast Agreement. Voters should bear that in mind when they go to the polls.