The Bonn summit on European Union finances yesterday cleared the way for four weeks of intensive negotiations, but made precious little progress towards resolving differences. The Agenda 2000 package on reforming the Common Agricultural Policy, the structural funds and the system of EU funding is set to be agreed finally at Berlin on March 24-25th if the political will is there. Yesterday's meeting at least laid bare the scale of the outstanding problems involved.
Ireland stands to lose most, on a per capita basis, in this confrontation but the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, was able to spell out the bottom line of what the Government will accept in the search for what he described as a "fair and equitable" agreement. Mr Ahern has an exceptionally difficult task to convince Ireland's partners that this State deserves the soft landing and relatively long transitional status required to bring infrastructure into line with the developed heart of Europe. In the same way it is an uphill task to convince them that Ireland's specific agricultural problems, notably its heavy reliance on the beef and dairy sectors, merit favourable attention.
The image of the Celtic Tiger militates against sympathy. It must be stated clearly that the extent of Irish convergence with EU average living standards is obscured by statistical measurements which exaggerate the contribution made to Irish standards by repatriated multinational profits. Ireland will not, in fact, catch up with the EU average until about 2006. And there is still a real deficit in infrastructural spending and provision compared to the much longer period the most developed states have had to put such structures in place.
Whatever the outcome of these negotiations from Ireland's point of view, they have had the salutary and valuable function of forcing policy-makers to confront long term developmental needs. Despite the great contribution made by EU funding to infrastructural development, much more is required over the next generation. Compared to the last one, most of the resources involved will have to be raised and funded at home. Fortunately the fiscal circumstances are now more propitious. But the need for self-reliance cannot disguise the strong case for a continuation of EU funding in the short to medium term.
Agriculture poses the most difficult problems for Ireland. The transition to more self-reliant development efforts would be gravely affected by a renationalisation of agricultural spending, which would tend to crowd out other policies. Such proposals should be flatly rejected. Other solutions will be painful but less damaging.
Mr Ahern appeared relaxed yesterday and was happy that the Agenda 2000 negotiations will be conducted in their concluding stages according to the principle that nothing is agreed until everything is. It will be difficult indeed for him and his ministers to give the negotiations the exclusive attention they demand, given the competing demands for attention of the Northern peace process and political uncertainties surrounding the two tribunals. But Ireland's well-being depends on achieving a fair and balanced outcome of the Agenda 2000 package.