The Iranian government has clearly been surprised by the International Atomic Energy Agency's unanimous decision giving it a deadline to show it is not preparing a nuclear arms programme.
Its representative walked out of the meeting in Vienna last week, complaining that politics has taken over from technical expertise in the agency's discussions. The latest line from Tehran says Iran is willing to co-operate; but the resolution means it must satisfy the IAEA by October 31st that it is not in breach of the Non-Proliferation Treaty by building nuclear weapons. Otherwise it will be reported to the United Nations Security Council, which could impose sanctions if this is true.
International politics was indeed flowing through the IAEA's decision-making. The Bush administration has been pressing the case against Iran for two years without convincing most other members of the IAEA that determined action must be taken. There was previously a suspicion that an ulterior motive was at play, associated with the administration's overall ambition for radical change in the Middle East. After the recent difficulties facing the US in Iraq and its greater willingness to co-operate with other states in overcoming them, there is a readiness to reciprocate over Iran by taking its nuclear programme more seriously. Russia, China, Pakistan, Canada and major European states have joined in the resolution - and the Russians have much to lose, since they have been supplying Iran with dual use technology which could be used in nuclear weapons as well as for nuclear energy.
From the evidence available it looks as if Iran could be seriously considering developing a weapons programme. This impression is reinforced by the endemic factionalism of its governing regime between Shia fundamentalists and secular reformers. Both sides fear an attack by nuclear-armed Israel, encouraged by a much stronger US military presence in the region. Reports that Saudi Arabia is also considering a nuclear weapons programme reinforce the dangers involved - and the need to understand why such states should feel threatened.
If it is developing nuclear weapons Iran faces a choice between admitting this and co-operating with the IAEA or withdrawing from it like North Korea. Many states are worried about the potential effects of such a proliferation on the balance of power in the region and willing to work through the well-established international rules and legal norms applying in the IAEA. They welcome signs that the US is more prepared to do likewise. Iran is therefore caught between a rock and a hard place on this issue. It would be wiser to co-operate than risk confrontation with a more united international community.