President Slobodan Milosevic, despite NATO's bombing campaign and vociferous demonstrations by opposition groups, remains in power in Belgrade. Proposed changes in the procedure for electing the president of Yugoslavia may ensure that he stays until the arrival of the Grim Reaper.
On the surface, the electoral changes seem eminently sensible. The presidency of Yugoslavia will, in theory, be determined in the same manner as the presidency of Ireland. There are however differences which are subtle and potentially of an overwhelmingly anti-democratic nature. Mr Milosevic's party has welcomed the move as heralding "a great contribution to democracy." Such Orwellian phraseology has its precedents elsewhere, notably in the apartheid days in South Africa. The pass laws which imposed severe travel restrictions on the majority population were introduced in legislation brazenly termed as: The (Bantu) Freedom of Movement Act. Not surprisingly, the latest moves have been enough to arouse deep suspicion not only in the international community but in the large and fragmented opposition within Yugoslavia.
The parliamentary majority in Belgrade has been engineered in order to ensure that Mr Milosevic's self-styled Socialist Party and its allies have an impregnable majority. The electoral changes will therefore pass when Mr Milosevic decides there has been enough discussion to create a sufficient impression of democratic debate.
Moreover, the opposition is disorganised, fragmented and in some cases unsavoury. The leader of the opposition Democratic Party, Mr Zoran Dzindjic, has had ties with the outlawed Bosnian Serb leader, Mr Radovan Karadzic, while the head of the Serbian Renewal Movement, Mr Vuk Draskovic, has been erratic and unreliable to the extent that members of his own party would push for a reduction of the powers of the presidency in the extremely unlikely event of his being elected to that position.
Mr Milosevic, like Mr Karadzic, has been indicted on charges of war crimes. His strongest suit in avoiding extradition to face charges in The Hague is to remain as President with the immunity the office provides. The German Chancellor, Mr Gerhard Schroeder, has suggested in the course of the G8 summit in Okinawa, that elections under the new format should not be recognised. The Serbian opposition and the Montenegrin government under President Djukanovic, are likely to boycott the elections which may be held as early as September. But Mr Milosevic's unwelcome re-election appears inevitable.