Politicians of all hues live in dread of stumbling into a decision on a seemingly simple matter, only then to be greeted with angry hordes in search of blood, writes Mark Hennessy
In the 1980s there was the doomed rod licence. Since then, we have seen the battle over individualisation, Mary Harney's 1997 thoughts on single mothers, water charges. The list goes on and on.
For months, Micheál Martin has bluntly made it clear, no ifs, buts or maybes, that smoking will be outlawed in pubs and restaurants from New Year's Day.
Fellow Ministers, who were only too quick to say, "You're right there, Micheál," around the Cabinet table, are only now waking up to the fact that he is deadly serious.
The majority of the non-smoking public - if they have thought much about it at all - would welcome the prospect of a night in the pub without need of fumigation afterwards. Unfortunately, however, politicians must cope with one reality of life. People who are getting something that benefits them are rarely prepared to raise their voices in support.
Instead, it is the Mr and Mrs Angrys who dominate the public debate - few more so than Mr Tadhg O'Sullivan of the Vintners' Federation of Ireland. Publicans, he says, are now prepared to spend thousands and thousands on ventilation systems that will leave pub air cleaner than it is outside on the street.
If so, one must wonder why they have not done so before now. Most "super-pubs" have fitted systems of some kind, though few would pass muster by the standards now being mooted. The vast majority of publicans have not done so, however, as the fog evident in many an establishment on a Friday night will more than testify.
The Minister has not allowed himself an iota of wiggle room on the question, insisting there is no possibility of compromise or delay.
It is an interesting strategy, though one could be forgiven for suspecting that he is putting it up to Bertie Ahern as much as he is to powerful and well-financed lobby groups.
Currently, anti-ban campaigners are focusing much of their attention on backbench FF TDs, who travel to Sligo for a parliamentary party meeting in early September.
Already, a number have been summoned, no less, by fulminating publicans in their own constituencies to be given a dressing down about their Minister. The TDs' leverage upon Mr Martin is less than might be supposed. He does not need them to troop into the voting lobbies in Leinster House.
The Public Health (Tobacco) Act 2002 is already in force and the smoking ban can be simply brought into effect by the Minister's signature.
Despite Environment Minister Martin Cullen's implication, Mr Martin also does not have to get the approval of the Cabinet beforehand. In this, he is king in his own domain.
So far, the Minister has heard some private words of support from Cabinet colleagues, bar the heavy smoking Environment Minister - even if the latter subsequently retreated.
Words of support, however, are cheap. If they want this regulation in force they will shortly be required to come out and stand beside him.
In simple terms, Martin is betting his career on his proposal, because his political capital will not be worth a fag butt on the pavement if he does not get it through.
Already, the Taoiseach is jittery, since he has had enough bad news to last him a lifetime and could well do without a battle with cigarette-loving drinkers of the pint o' plain. Though the summer lull has not helped, there has been a distinct lack of support for Martin from his ministerial colleagues - notably Charlie McCreevy.
Inevitably, the issue will become embroiled in the Fianna Fáil succession stakes. The anti-Martin camp would be well pleased to see the Corkman getting a bloody nose.
However, the Minister has more than a few cards to play. He can quietly threaten to play hardball with awkward backbenchers who need him daily for constituency matters.
And the Irish Hospitality Industry Alliance and the vintners' organisations are hardly comfortable bedfellows, judging by the niggling going on in the background between the two. The statistics put forward by both are miles apart. The IHIA warns of doomsday: 65,000 jobs to go, €1 billion tax revenue lost and a 30 per cent cut in alcohol sales. The vintners have taken a more sober approach, however, forecasting potential job losses of 10,000 and a loss to the Exchequer of €157 million.
The world will not end if the ban comes into effect on New Year's Day because, Ireland being Ireland, it will be ignored in large swathes of the country for many years to come. In itself, this should not be necessarily seen as a disaster for Martin. Laws requiring the use of seatbelts were brought in over 20 years and are still ignored by many. None of us would credibly try to argue today that the seatbelt order should be withdrawn because of this. Instead, efforts are made to increase usage year on year.
The same could happen with the smoking ban. In time, non-smokers will congregate in places where they know the ban will be enforced. None of this will happen overnight but so what?
A similar ban is coming into force in Canada next summer. Already, the Canadians have stiff regulations, including a $5,000 fine. However, we are not Canadians, who tend to respect laws. If anything, Micheál Martin's mistake is to think that we are better than we are.