The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, will want to forget much of 2003. Public support for the Coalition Government, for Fianna Fáil and for the Taoiseach's own leadership declined steadily throughout the year until all three responses were deep into the political danger zone.
Mutterings of rebellion by Fianna Fáil backbenchers on a variety of issues did nothing for government or party morale and Mr Ahern's attempts to impose discipline were seen to be weak and ineffectual. In order to limit negative publicity, the Government severely restricted the terms of the Freedom of Information Act.
Throughout the year, the Government and its Ministers promised much, but delivered little. There were a number of flamboyant gestures, particularly in relation to health and decentralisation. But the pattern was one of limited progress. Unemployment continued to rise, even as the number of people at work increased. And, while the Economic and Social Research Institute and the Central Bank produced quite bullish forecasts at the close of the year, memories of tax cuts and the Celtic Tiger were like a stone in the shoe for those low-paid workers who were struggling to pay their bills. Ireland became the second most expensive country in the euro-zone, partly as a result of indirect taxes imposed by the Government, as well as through profiteering and stealth charges. Consumer prices were 12 per cent above the European average and competitiveness was seriously eroded.
As one of the most open economies in the world and reliant on United States investment, Ireland lived dangerously in 2003. When the United States and Britain prepared to invade Iraq, President Bush looked for support and the Taoiseach remained aloof. Then Mr Ahern went to Washington and confirmed that Shannon could be used as a staging-post by US military aircraft, in the absence of a UN mandate for war. Earlier, opinion polls had indicated that 54 per cent of the electorate were opposed to such a concession. But with the Tánaiste and leader of the Progressive Democrats, Ms Harney, in firm support, the gesture was made. The development stretched the concept of Irish neutrality to breaking point and brought about 100,000 people onto the streets of Dublin in protest. Later, Mr Ahern claimed the protesters had been supporting his official position on the war: that it should not take place without a UN mandate. But the use of Shannon in the US military build-up had been a key motivating factor. Public exposure of the pragmatic nature of Irish neutrality caused the Fine Gael leader, Mr Enda Kenny, to advocate Irish membership of an EU defence structure. And, in seeking to establish a clear identity for Fine Gael as the leader of an alternative government, he proposed that our traditional form of neutrality should be abandoned. He failed to engage the Government in political debate.
A similar, controversial approach was taken to special pay awards for public servants. Fine Gael argued the benchmarking awards should not be paid because the required productivity and modernisation of work practices had not been forthcoming. In spite of such policy initiatives, however, and a statement by the Labour Party leader, Mr Pat Rabbitte, that he favoured a vote strategy with Fine Gael in forming the next government, the opposition parties failed to capitalise on public disillusionment and Government mistakes.
Attempts by the Irish and British Governments to fully implement the terms of the Belfast Agreement were frustrated by successive IRA failures to engage in "acts of completion" and to create the trust necessary to allow the Ulster Unionists enter an Executive with Sinn Féin. The postponement of Assembly elections did not help. When the contest was finally held in November, the Rev Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionist Party emerged as the largest unionist party, with Sinn Féin supplanting the SDLP as the major voice in the nationalist community. A review of the Agreement will be held in the New Year.
Plans to decentralise 10,000 public servants and - more importantly - the identification of the towns and cities that would benefit from the scheme have provided the governing parties with positive electioneering material for the local elections. In a blatant departure from its spatial strategy, the Government nominated 52 centres in 25 counties that will receive displaced public servants. Even if, as seems likely, the dispersal of some departmental headquarters does not happen, the overall impact is likely to be favourable for the governing parties.
On the other side of the coin, the Government's efforts at reforming the hospital system by concentrating specialised treatment and 24-hour accident and emergency services in major centres was opposed both inside and outside of Cabinet. In the meantime, delays in reforming the administrative system and abolishing the old health boards have become endemic. And the planned ban on smoking in the workplace, which was fiercely resisted by the hospitality sector, will finally take effect in February.
The various tribunals ground on, disclosing criminal behaviour by public servants, politicians and businessmen. The Revenue Commissioners raised almost 1 billion in five years of inquiries into offshore and bogus bank accounts. A review of the criminal justice system was underway following a spate of gangland, drug-related murders and the collapse of a high-profile trial. New regulations governing pub opening hours and the presence of young people on licensed premises were introduced. The Minister for Education, Mr Dempsey, was forced to abandon plans to reintroduce third level education fees. The Minister for the Environment, Mr Cullen, was struggling with waste management and pollution issues. And the Minister for Transport, Mr Brennan, persevered in his determination to break up Aer Rianta.
Many of the problems and policy objectives that confronted the Government in the opening days of 2003 have yet to be resolved. And the majority of Ministers are still struggling to impress.