Madam, - While the election of Arnold Schwarzenegger certainly owed much to widespread disaffection with the political establishment amongst the Californian electorate, Drapier (October 11th) is incorrect to state that the vote for independents in Ireland at the 2002 general election "was as much a vote against the parties".
Studies of American politics have found significant links between express anti-party sentiment and an increasing tendency to vote independent. One notable example was the 19 per cent garnered by independent candidate Ross Perot at the 1992 US presidential election, a vote largely fuelled by dissatisfaction with parties and the party system.
In Ireland, by contrast, election analyses have shown that there is no significant link between anti-party sentiment and one's propensity to vote for independents. In addition, fewer than one in four independent votes transferred to fellow independents where such candidates were available at the last election, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael the recipients of a bulk of their transfers. This is hardly evidence of anti-party sentiment.
While still at its tentative stages, research suggests that the election of independents is actually due to dissatisfaction at the lack of a government alternative. Independent voters, who stem largely from the two main parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, see their first preference as a "non-normal" vote, a comment on the failure of the system to provide an alternative. Having made their comment, this explains why they then transfer back to "normal" voting with their lower preferences.
The failure of the opposition to provide a credible alternative to the outgoing coalition was the major reason for the election of Independents in 2002 - not anti-party sentiment.
Thus, if the opposition parties do not get their act together by the time of the next election, Independents are likely to be re-elected on the same criteria. -Yours, etc.,
LIAM WEEKS, Department of Political Science, Trinity College, Dublin 2.