Today in Pretoria, President Mandela will try to save the Congo, one of Africa's largest countries and its most ethnically diverse, from implosion. The war there has reached a critical stage with the rebel troops closing in on the capital, Kinshasa; the country's leader, President Kabila, clearly has insufficient support at home to launch a counter-offensive. Today Mr Mandela brings together Mr Kabila with President Museveni of Uganda, President Bizimungu of Rwanda and President Mugabe of Zimbabwe in search of a peaceful solution. Tomorrow there will be a full meeting of the 14-member South African Development Community (SADC) aimed at ratifying any agreement. Mr Mandela's task is formidable. The five nations which are represented today are not even agreed that a peaceful solution is desirable.
Mr Kabila 's situation is hopeless. It beggars belief that a man can spend 30 years leading a guerilla movement, come to power with the aid of six other countries thus removing a deeply corrupt and unpopular tyrant, and within the space of 15 months find himself on his knees and as unpopular at home as he is with his erstwhile allies. Mr Kabila's presidency has been a disaster. He has done nothing to arrest economic decline. He has encouraged corruption. He refused to assist a UN investigation into the murders of Hutu refugees - and thereby lost badly-needed foreign aid. He jailed local politicians and alienated his country's neighbours. The sooner Mr Kabila stands down, the better.
And yet Mr Kabila will have allies around the table this weekend. Mr Mugabe has been adamant that Mr Kabila should receive not just aid but military backing. His stance is purely self-serving. Mr Kabila's government owes Zimbabwe $93 million for military services already rendered - money that Zimbabwe badly needs and will not get from the rebels if they take over.
Mr Mugabe's push for military involvement is completely counter to the stance taken by Mr Mandela (the SADC chairman) who argues that sending troops to prop up Mr Kabila would only worsen the situation. But Mr Mugabe aims to replace Mr Mandela as the regional power-broker when the South African president retires. Mr Mugabe's arrogance is only matched by his self-importance. He criticised Mr Mandela for having the effrontery to disagree with military involvement and told him that if he could not support the plan then he should stay quiet. Mr Mugabe would seem to think that his SADC colleagues should have as much freedom of speech as he is used to allowing political opponents at home.
Mr Mandela is right and Mr Mugabe is wrong. What the Congo needs is a comprehensive political settlement. Mr Kabila should step down and SADC must help to replace him with a broadly-based democratic government. Propping up Mr Kabila will result most likely in the sundering of the country, with Mr Kabila holding his home province of Katanga, and local fiefdoms based on tribal loyalties emerging almost everywhere else. Liberia and Sierra Leone illustrate starkly that fragmentation of that order leads straight to widespread poverty, suffering and death.