The Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary is an admirable man. Unlike many of his peers, he lives in Ireland and pays his taxes. His company has created jobs and expanded the range of services available to Irish travellers.
He is a brilliant propagandist for his company, and a populist hero, who terrifies the life out of would-be populist politicians because he plays the man-of-the-people game better than they do.
He is so good at his job, indeed, that we tend to forget what that job is. It is to make money for himself and his shareholders. It is not to run a country.
Yet, in a key area of public policy that is effectively what he is now doing. Michael O'Leary is now the real Minister for Transport, and Séamus Brennan is his deputy, desperately hoping to be warmed by his master's reflected glory. Air transport policy is now being run according to the brilliant spinning of a masterful advocate for a profit-driven company.
Instead of conducting a rational assessment of where the national interest might lie, the Government has decided that in a contest for the public's affections between the TP Barnum of Irish aviation and the grey apparatchiks of SIPTU, there is only going to be one winner. It knows damn well that what's inside the Barnum tent may well be an illusion, but it's decided to step right up anyway.
Michael O'Leary has hammered away for a long time on a relatively simple message. Aer Rianta is an inefficient State monopoly that forces airlines to pay exorbitant charges. This results in high airfares that in turn discourage potential visitors. The Irish tourism industry, a crucial part of the economy, suffers and we miss out on jobs and wealth. If we smash Aer Rianta and introduce competition between Irish airports, the market will create lower airport charges, lower fares and a flood of new visitors.
This seems like a very solid case, and backed up both by Michael O'Leary's forceful personality and by the company's ability to pay for political ads, it has probably made its way into most people's minds. The lesson seems to have been re-enforced by the chaos at Dublin Airport in the last few years while it was undergoing redevelopment. Given all of that, and the fact that the public face of Aer Rianta is much less glamorous, it is not surprising that Séamus Brennan would want to be on the side of the obvious winners.
The only problem, though, is that before it hitched its wagon to the O'Leary star, the Government was foolish enough to ask for an independent examination of the issues. Last year, the London-based aviation consultant Prof Rigas Doganis was commissioned by Bertie Ahern to look at the issues. He had the bad grace to demolish the O'Leary case.
Aer Rianta, alas, is not an inefficient monopoly. According to Doganis, "Dublin would appear to have lower charges than any major airport in Europe except Luxembourg". This is largely because Aer Rianta is exceptionally good at earning commercial income (from its international operations and duty-free shops) and using this effectively to subsidise airlines. The biggest beneficiary of its discounts, moreover, has been Ryanair: "Ryanair has been able to obtain the largest discounts, it has always paid significantly less per passenger than other operators not only at Dublin but also at Shannon."
In any case, airport charges have no discernible impact on either tourist flows or the decisions of airlines about what routes they will fly. There are two reasons for this. One is that they represent a small fraction (8 per cent) of an airline's costs, so even halving the charge at any one airport would reduce costs by only 2 per cent. The other is that airlines make their routing decisions in relation to anticipated passenger demand, not airport charges. If this were not so, then Dublin Airport, with its exceptionally low charges, would be the primary destination for every European airline.
Doganis points out that even low-cost airlines like Ryanair, while they naturally want the charges to be as low as possible, don't actually use them to decide whether or not to open new routes. They don't include them in their advertised fares, but treat them as add-ons. "High add-ons have not stopped Ryanair from launching services to several high-cost airports. Stansted's add-on is the highest, yet Stansted is Ryanair's major base outside Dublin."
And even when they get very cheap airport charges, they don't necessarily pass them on to their customers. Doganis points out that Ryanair adds a UK£6.44 landing charge at Charleroi to its passengers' bills, but that this is four times the actual landing charge. In general, "fares charged by low-cost airlines on different routes in no way reflect the costs of using particular airports".
In the best traditions of not letting the truth get in the way of a good story, however, the Government is pressing ahead with the break-up of Aer Rianta. With no studies, no business plan, and no attempt to rebut Doganis's findings, a major part of the national infrastructure is being scrapped. Never mind the national interest, just follow the man in the rugby shirt.