Rite and Reason: Even Vatican officials have to admit Pope John Paul is ailing. Jim Cantwell looks ahead to what takes place during the election of a new pope.
In a magazine interview last week Cardinal Ratzinger, prefect of the Church's Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, asked Catholics to pray for the Pope because he was "in a bad way". The cardinal would hardly have said this a short time before John Paul's papal silver jubilee (on October 16th) if he did not have more than a hunch that a long and extraordinary life may be drawing to a close.
Seven years ago the Pope promulgated a constitution that sets out in precise detail all procedures governing the election of his successor. It is the latest in a long line of documents which adapt to the conditions of their time the ordering of the papal election established by three medieval popes.
No earlier than 15 days after the Pope dies, but no later than 20, all cardinals aged under 80 (since 1970, octogenarians are excluded) will meet in secret conclave to choose his successor, completely shut off from the outside world. No newspapers, TV, radio, phone calls, PCs, or even letters, are permitted.
The cardinals will be housed in a new accommodation block in the Vatican instead of the makeshift cells of past conclaves.
During voting the Sistine Chapel will be locked from inside - hence the word conclave (cum clave, with a key). As they have done for a millennium, cardinals will vote (four times daily) until one person gets a two-thirds' majority. If the number of voters is not divisible by three, two-thirds plus one is required.
When the Pope creates new cardinals on October 21st the number of electors will increase to 134, that is 14 more than the maximum stipulated in the constitution. But, for the third time, Pope John Paul II ignored this norm in the number of new cardinals he has created. So, a conclave held next month, for example, would require a candidate to get 90 votes (89+1) to be elected.
In the event of a prolonged stalemate the cardinals can opt to decide the election either by a run-off between the two leading candidates in the previous ballot, or - for the first time ever - by an absolute majority (51 per cent).
However, at least 34 ballots must be cast before these options become available. Unlikely, but not impossible. In 1740 the supremely gifted Prospero Lambertini (Benedict XIV) was elected on the 255th ballot. But an average of only seven ballots were required to elect the last 10 popes.
At the end of every two indecisive ballots the voting papers are burned with damp straw, emitting black smoke from the chimney above the Sistine Chapel.
When the cardinals have made their choice, dry straw - with a chemical added to eliminate traces of grey - sends out a plume of white smoke, signalling to the world that there is a new pope.
At the end of the conclave the presiding cardinal will finalise a document and place it in a sealed envelope marked "Secret". It will be deposited in the Vatican archives and may not be opened by anyone without the Pope's explicit permission. What is so sensitive that its contents must be hidden from the world? Nothing more startling than the official record of the voting. Cardinal-electors will be sworn to secrecy.
The stress on secrecy is to safeguard the freedom of the electors. In a secret ballot, individuals have a right to confidentiality. The constitution seeks to protect this even within the conclave, by advising cardinals to use handwriting that cannot be identified as theirs. But does secrecy need to be extended to the ballot results?
There are no declared contestants at a conclave. The candidates emerge in the voting. A papal election is not a popularity contest. It is a process of collective discernment about the current needs of the church and who is the best choice to lead it into the future.
No pacts or promises are permitted which would oblige cardinals to give or withhold their votes from particular candidates. The two-thirds majority system, the norm since 1179, leaves no doubt about their choice.
Pope John Paul's constitution is right to claim that the system is well-suited to the needs of the church and "the conventions of modern society". However, the requirement that the ballot results be kept secret is at odds with this.
It is not based on apostolic tradition, but on a papal directive scarcely a century old. Armagh diocesan archives have the personal record of the ballots that Cardinal Michael Logue was allowed to take home from the 1903 conclave. This has never been a secret document.
Papal elections have a long history, of which the church can for the most part be justly proud. That's why the ballot results are a matter of genuine public interest, especially for Catholics. They are a graph that can be of help in understanding the process of discernment undertaken in their name behind closed doors.
No discernible harm was done to the church or the papacy because the results became public in the past. In today's media-driven culture lack of accurate data does little to promote informed analysis. It does, however, facilitate spurious speculation.
Jim Cantwell's book, The Election of the Pope, is published by St Paul's Publications at €7.95