Major decisions on European defence arrangements will be made in coming months, which could determine the shape of the European Union's world role and transatlantic relations for years to come.
Many of the elements involved have become more clear following the EU summit in Brussels which concluded yesterday. The leaders agreed that any defence co-operation within the EU will be overseen politically by the member-states as a whole. Tentative proposals to develop an operational planning headquarters for the EU independent of NATO, which have alarmed the United States, are to be discussed further. Hanging over these discussions is the issue of Iraq, which has so divided NATO and EU members over the last year, but which has this week come back under a unanimous United Nations mandate.
The draft constitutional treaty prepared by the Convention on the Future of Europe and now being negotiated in the Inter-Governmental Conference (IGC), allowed for defence co-operation to be developed and defined only by those taking part directly in it. This will now be changed so that all EU states can participate in formulating objectives, even if they will not be directly involved. It is an arrangement that would suit Ireland better, but it remains to be seen what details emerge.
Ireland cannot participate in EU actions that do not have a UN mandate, as a result of the declaration made in Seville to get the Nice referendum passed. Fine Gael yesterday proposed changing this, but will not get other parties' support. Nor can Ireland become involved in a common defence commitment without explicit authorisation in another referendum, according to the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, yesterday. But could this commitment be incorporated in the treaty now being negotiated by the IGC, so that the referendum on that would give the necessary mandate? This is unlikely to be acceptable to the Government; but it does illustrate how serious are the issues at stake and how carefully they should be watched.
The Bush administration is alarmed by the possibility that the EU could develop an independent defence capacity, duplicating and undermining NATO's. It is worried that the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, has agreed to discuss autonomous arrangements with France and Germany. Behind these fears major changes are portended in transatlantic relations. An enlarged EU needs to develop security and defence structures and policies for its wider region, including Russia and the Middle East. Increasingly this involves a readiness to act at a global level by defining its own values and interests, distinct from those of the US. Mr Blair knows that Britain must be involved if it is to retain influence in Europe and is willing to agree this with the French and Germans. The Bush administration prefers a divided rather than a united EU on these questions. The US will have to agree a much more equal set of arrangements on security and defence if it is to retain lasting military influence in a changing Europe.