The Northern Assembly election result is good for peace, even if in the short-term it will make the political process, and the restoration of the institutions, still more difficult.
The success of Sinn Féin is a stunning vindication of the republican movement's decision to move towards a purely political strategy. I have always argued, on the analogy of Fianna Fáil in the early days, that people like republican politics much more than republican violence.
Sinn Féin has overtaken the SDLP, but it has routed republican dissident organisations, whose pathetic attempts at armed propaganda and at discouraging voting are no match for the Sinn Féin seat gains.
No one who respects the intelligence of the public can possibly still describe elected Sinn Féin politicians as "unreconstructed terrorists".
The movement has been reconstructed in a manner that has few parallels internationally. It is not in the advantageous situation of a national liberation movement which had the support of the population in winning independence from a colonial power. I find it impossible not to admire the leadership achievements of Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness, even though I do not empathise with many aspects of their past, and despite the frustrating slowness of much recent progress. It is surely time for the IRA to retire from all forms of active service, if not on its own merits, then as the quid pro quo for an inclusive institutional stability. This would go far to provide a better agreement.
Someone else who long past retirement age, and having led his followers to the electoral promised land, could not find a more ideal moment to withdraw, is the Rev Ian Paisley. I suspect, however, that like the Pope he intends to carry on till the end. There will be no red carpets waiting for him in Downing Street, still less Buckingham Palace, nor many services of thanksgiving around the Protestant world.
I expect the DUP to develop elaborate and discreet forms of communication with other parties, in addition to the permissible public meetings. Much can be done in bilaterals, direct and indirect. The DUP will not succeed in removing or diluting the principles of consent and self-determination as the foundation of any constitutional settlement. Nor will it find a way of freezing out Sinn Féin which is just as capable of playing a long game. Will the DUP opt for five years in the political wilderness? I doubt it. But the choice of the toughest champions on both sides is likely to make for a lengthier stand-off.
I am glad that a unionist representative has been elected for the Shankill in West Belfast. Significant minorities should be represented, and the loyalist feud was a symptom of an alarming demoralisation there in the absence of representation. David Ervine has survived in East Belfast.
The loyalist contribution to the early stages of the peace process, not least during the breakdown of the IRA ceasefire, and to the negotiation of the Good Friday agreement was very constructive. The subsequent failure of the loyalist paramilitary leaderships to bring anything to the table in terms of winding down their organisations also contributed to their marginalisation. In order to be listened to and take something away, one needs to have something to offer. The retention of a paramilitary capacity will not influence Northern Ireland politics, once it is firmly set in a constitutional mould.
It is simplistic to say that people voted for extremes, when former extremes have become noticeably more moderate. The parties that once held the middle ground have been squeezed. Monica McWilliams and her colleagues made a fine contribution over the years, but more women are now being elected. The Alliance Party is still there, mainly in strong Unionist constituencies.
The Ulster Unionist Party held its own, a very solid achievement, given the divided loyalties and infighting, which would put even the British Conservative Party to shame. The DUP has outstripped them, by gobbling up nearly all the unattached anti-Agreement seats. David Trimble is a political leader of considerable achievement with well-honed survival skills. I would be in no hurry to write him off.
David Burnside and Jeffrey Donaldson certainly made their contribution to the advance of Sinn Féin, by the reaction that their tactics and public comments provoked among nationalists. Unionists would do well to remember that every time they treat Sinn Féin in an insulting manner they now also insult much of the nationalist electorate in Northern Ireland.
A steady Ulster Unionist and SDLP presence can still do much to steady the political process. The setback to the SDLP will cause much regret and some dismay in the South. All parties lent their support, and if the election was just a question of past services there would be little contest. If the Executive had been allowed a clear run, the strengths of the SDLP, now led by Mark Durkan, would have been shown to better advantage. Few parties at present can match the finances or organisational zeal of Sinn Féin.
What next? The winners will each press the claims of their mandate. The governments will not want a prolonged return to direct rule, but nor will they rush their fences. The republican movement could do much to unlock and short-circuit the process. Unionists need to remember that, in the last analysis, it is they who want Northern Ireland to work. It is legitimate to require a level democratic playing-field, but short-sighted to retreat from engagement, regardless of potential progress.
Unionists are just as prone to fall into the trap of the demographic argument as nationalists. The perpetuation of a bitterly divided society and of a dependent economy, together with political marginalisation within the UK, alongside a neighbour that has made a success of its State and its economy, is bound to raise the question sooner or later, even among the captive constituency of Northern Protestants, as to whether there could not be some advantages in merging their fortunes more closely with the South.