The depth of the housing crisis means any plan to address it seems inadequate. To provide enough homes to deal with a rising population and also to satisfy the demand from the many thousands locked out of the market in recent years, or living in inadequate accommodation, requires a step change in the scale of housing delivery. How many homes Ireland can actually build, given constraints on labour, a building sector with too few large operators, and a system that has struggled to deliver over 30,000 homes a year, is a genuine question.
The Government has sidestepped this to some extent in its new housing plan by deciding not to have annual targets. It is, however, sticking to its goal of delivering 300,000 new homes over its term. The absence of annual targets – as well as threatening operational uncertainty – smacks of a political move to avoid regular blame for not achieving them.
The extent and breadth of the measures in the plan do suggest that the Coalition realises the importance of the issue. There is a coherent set of measures involved covering the different stages of the housing process. There is much to debate and some reasonable points from the Opposition.
The job for the Coalition now is to get on with it and show it can actually start to implement the plan. The difficulty, as we have seen, is that delivery can fail or be delayed for a number of different reasons. At the very least, the Government now needs to address the more obvious ones, including properly resourcing the planning system and the courts and finding ways to progress the vital infrastructure connections without which this plan will surely fail.
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In its 2024 report, the Commission on Housing called for a “radical reset” of policy. This plan goes some of the way down this road. It recognises, in particular, the key interconnections in policy that have failed in recent years. It remains to be seen, however, if the different parts of the system can work effectively together to really accelerate housing provision. The commission’s call for an independent housing oversight body has not been delivered – in the public service, territory continues to be defended.
The Opposition has called for more ambition in delivery. And the extent of the need is not in any doubt. The key initial job is to start to make significant progress, accelerating and improving planning, turning approvals into new homes, progressing plans on vacant and derelict premises and ensuring that vital housing and infrastructure are not held up endlessly in judicial reviews.
If the Government fails here, it will only prove correct the Opposition charges that this new strategy is more of the same. This plan can make a difference, but whether it will is the question. The answer will go a long way to determining the future of the Coalition.
