Six months after the Government was formed last January, it would be hard to say that the Coalition has hit the ground running. It had a stumbling start with fierce rows over changes to the Dáil standing order necessitated by the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael deal with the independents. Its greatest challenge is clearly increasing housing output quickly, but it has often seemed hesitant, indecisive and lethargic. Now it faces a hugely uncertain – and potentially enormously damaging – economic and trading environment in the coming months, just as it prepares to frame its first budget.
Nevertheless, this week’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll shows support for the two Government parties holding steady, while its satisfaction rating – and that of its leaders – is also maintained. Instead, it is the main Opposition party Sinn Féin, which saw a slump, albeit after the surge in the last poll in April. It is hard to escape the sense that politics is settling into a familiar groove.
And yet the Coalition would be deeply unwise to presume too much on the patience of the voters. More than half (53 per cent) of all respondents say that the problems facing the country are getting worse; just 14 per cent say that the Coalition is making progress, while 30 per cent say progress has stalled. These are shocking figures. Unless the Government can convince voters that it can demonstrate progress ––on housing, on public service, on the cost of living – the numbers on political support will soon reflect that.
A similar attitude of being generally unimpressed is evident in today’s findings on the forthcoming presidential election. The presumptive Fine Gael candidate, Mairead McGuinness, leads the field on 14 per cent, followed by newly declared candidate Catherine Connolly on 8 per cent. Mary Lou McDonald – will she or won’t she run? – is on 8 per cent. But it is instructive that the most popular responses in the poll were “none of the names so far appeal to me” (18 per cent), and “not sure” (20 per cent). This contest has not yet registered in a meaningful way with the voters.
READ MORE
Elsewhere in today’s results, the Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe emerges as the minister who is most highly regarded by the public, with almost half of them saying he is doing a good job. Donohoe is also, by some distance, the favourite choice of the public and of Fine Gael voters to succeed Simon Harris as leader, if he were to depart.
It will be interesting to see if the popularity of Donohoe – the Government’s leading advocate for fiscal prudence – survives the budget season. This reaches a key point next week with the publication of the Summer Economic Statement, when the two budget ministers, Donohoe and Jack Chambers, will underline the need to control current spending, in part to leave room for more State investment. It is the correct course, but that does not mean it will be popular.
