The Irish Times view on the coming Covid-19 wave: a health service bracing for winter

Covid-19 has largely stayed out of the headlines over recent months, giving the country a much-needed break after the trauma of a two-year-old pandemic. Yet the virus has not gone away, the pandemic is not over and the warning signs for a difficult winter in the health service continue to mount.

There are indications another wave of infection is underway. The number of patients in hospital with Covid-19 has almost doubled in the space of a month. While overall far less testing is carried out now than was previously, the positivity of PCR tests has increased by 50 per cent since mid-September. So far, the situation in Ireland is changing more slowly than in some of our European neighbours, which are evidently in the throes of a new wave. This time around, the situation is more complicated than before. Some of the rise in cases is attributable to the arrival of autumn and the return to school, and there are some signs in the UK for example that this change has already played out in the figures.

Another factor is the rise of new variants which are better able to evade the immunity provided by vaccination or previous infection. The UK authorities say that overall the new variants may be contributing to the rise in cases there. Meanwhile, the Irish health service continues to stumble along. An average of about 500 patients have to lie on trolleys each day before being admitted to hospital. Most waiting lists remain at record levels. Demand is also approaching record levels. It is clearly ill-prepared for another winter wave of Covid-19. Flu levels remain low but already cases of RSV, which mainly affects children, are on the rise. Plans are being made for the winter but have yet to be unveiled. For most of us, the threat from Covid-19 is greatly diminished. Vaccines and boosters provide effective protection against severe illness, even if the protection against infection fades quickly. The boosters now being administered by the HSE provide specific protection against the BA.5 variants still dominant here.

However, virus fatigue has led to a fall-off in booster uptake, and the most vulnerable are paying the price. There were 94 deaths of people with Covid-19 in August, and 184 in July. US authorities have calculated that unvaccinated people aged over 50 are 12 times more likely to die from Covid-19 than those who are up to date on vaccination. In Ireland only 70 per cent of over-65s have received a second booster and less than half of over-65s in hospital are up to date with their boosters.

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More than 50,000 people were administered second boosters last week, as demand surged following the introduction of vaccines adapted to tackle BA.5. A lot more work needs to be done to persuade vulnerable groups to update their boosters before the next wave of Covid-19 infections – for their sakes and that of the health service.